Thursday, 5 November 2020

Trump's Roads to Victory

Unless I am missing something, which wouldn't be the first time, or there are some shenanigans in the courts, which seems less likely, as things stand, Trump has just three ways of getting to the 270 Electoral College votes he needs to win.

The five states still in-play are Pennsylvania (PA), Georgia (GA), North Carolina (NC), Nevada (NV) and Arizona (AZ) which has already been called a win for Biden by Fox News, much to Trump's annoyance and perhaps a little prematurely.

Certainly a fair amount of money was matched down to 1.01 in the AZ market for Biden, with the price now out to 1.2. The issue here is that pre-election day ballots are still being counted, and while generally the early / mail-in voting has favoured Biden, around 59% of the ballots to be counted are from areas favouring Trump which means the lead Biden currently has will close.

Anyway, the maths is that if Biden wins Pennsylvania or Georgia, he gets to 269, which with the deciding vote to be cast by the House of Representatives, again under Democrat control, would mean a win for Biden and on Betfair whose rules cover this possibility.

So for Trump to win he needs both PA and GA plus either:
NC and AZ or
NC and NV or 
AZ and NV.

Trump is currently the favourite in just one of these states, North Carolina (1.2) but using the current state prices, and they are moving all the time, these combinations add up to a 2% probability if my Pure Mathematics With Statistics 'A' Level skills are still with me. 

Biden is trading at 1.1 / 1.11 with Trump at 10 / 10.5 which means a big discount for the possibility of the courts intervening in a crucial state or on a state such as Michigan suddenly finding thousands of Trump ballots. 

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