Second Legs

The First Legs of the Bundesliga and Bundesliga.2 Promotion / Relegation Playoff Finals both went to the Home (and Favourite) teams, and both by large margins. 

Stuttgart beat Hamburg by three goals on Thursday, with Wehen Wiesbaden going one better versus Arminia Bielefeld on Friday. 

The Second Leg matches start today and only once has the Home side overcome a deficit from the First Leg, Dynamo Dresden in 2013, and that was a mere one goal handicap, and only once has a team ever previously come into one of these games with a three or greater goal deficit to overcome - Vfl Osnabruck in 2021 (who won 3:1).

The danger of betting in a game where one side has a big lead is around the issue of motivation for the leading side since even a small loss is enough to win the tie, but is this factored into the odds?

While there is almost no data in these specific Bundesliga playoffs, there are 65 matches to look at from the European club competitions where the Home side has faced a deficit of three goals or more, and there are a few profitable strategies. 

Backing the favourite in these games has an ROI of 12%, backing the Home side of 21% and backing the Away side of 18%. However, in a small sample size, that latter number is influenced by four wins at a raw 5.89 or longer.

Needing to score at least four to have a chance for promotion, Arminia Bielefeld are favourites to win the game tomorrow, while Stuttgart are favoured to win in Hamburg.

Home teams trailing from the First Leg:

For the record, simply blindly backing the Away team in second leg Bundesliga play-off games has an impressive ROI of 71% from 28 matches.