Saturday 19 August 2023

Big Match Draw Update

For followers of the Draw in 'big' matches, there's no better match than UEFA's Super Cup which delivered for the 8th time in the last 11 matches this week, and  for the 10th time in the 19 matches for which I have data and a 25.12 unit profit. It's rather a pity that these games only come along once a year. 

The knockout stages of the Women's World Cup are also guaranteed to generate a profit, with 4 of the 14 games played so far ending as Draws, and just the Final to come. The Draw on the exchanges is 3.15 but an expected "close" match in the women's game hasn't historically been the harbinger of success that it has been in the men's version of the game, but the former is still relatively new with nothing like the volume of data we have for the latter. 

Across all Women's World Cups and Euros (79 matches starting with the 2009 Euros), the Draw ROI is 3% and in games where there is no fair-priced odds-on favourite, the ROI climbs to 17%.

For 'big' matches in the 2022-23 season, the final total backing the Draw was 10.81 units from 63 matches. The Women's Euros made 3.81 units, the European Club competitions made 0.81 units and the English domestic season made 6.19 units, for an ROI of 17.2% 

If we only include those matches where there is no fair-priced odds-on favourite, the respective numbers are 3.81, 3.20 and 3.02 for a total of 10.05 units and an ROI of 24.5%.

A couple of readers have asked about the 'Sacred Manuscript' and I shall update the above results this weekend as well as include the Women's World Cup results. I'd planned to do this sooner, but with the passing of my Dad, there's been a lot going on. 

One of the longest running systems included in this document is the NFL Road 'Dogs System, which has an ROI of 6.5% dating back to the league's realignment in 2002 and 1306 matches. More on this edge in my next post.

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