The 2026 World Cup is over, and it resulted in another profit for followers of the Draw in knockout matches which sounds good, but without the Argentina v Cabo Verde draw in the Round of 32 the return would have been negative.
Eight of the 31 matches ended as draws, and arguably we were a little unlucky with nine other matches seeing a goal in the 86th minute or later.
The "hydration breaks" noticeably impacted games, but whether we can blame them for the draw-busting late goals or this is just down to chance, in my opinion it's too small a sample from which we can draw any real conclusions.
The raw numbers for the full system are 31 matches, 8 Draws, +3.81 units, ROI 12% but for those ignoring matches with an odds-on favourite, there was a small loss with 13 matches, 4 Draws, -0.25 units, and an ROI of -1.9%.
Backing the favourite would have made a profit of 2.6 units (ROI 8%) while backing the underdog would have been costly at -16.9 units, an ROI of -55%.
The updated numbers for the Draw in all major International tournament knockout matches since 2004 (World Cup, Euros, AFCON, Copa América, AFC Asian Cup, Gold Cup and the UEFA and CONCACAF Nations Cup):
1 comment:
Im a big fan of your work here, having stumbled across this blog several years ago and have tailed this strategy since 2020 (euros and WC), so thank you for sharing. On this years tournament wasn’t there 9 draws in the knock out stages? I got returns north of 6 units.
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