How Soon We Forget

From the Green-All-Over Archives, and what do I find posted on November 26th 2008? To make it easy for you, I shall tell you - I find this:

Q) And what is a good reason to enter or exit a position?
A) Because the market offers value.

We see this debate quite often on the gambling forums – whether or not to green-up. My answer is that you should only ever green-up if the market offers value. If you have backed at 2.0, and the current price is 1.5, some argue that you can’t go wrong with locking in a profit. I would argue that you lock in a profit ONLY if your valuation is that the correct price is above 1.5. If not, then this is a bad profit.

This is all great in theory however, but in reality and in the heat of the action, I must admit that I sometimes lay a big red total off simply because it’s scary seeing that red number on the screen. (I often have bets where I am red to the tune of close to £5,000, and winning or not, it sets the pulse racing which I am told is not good for me!) and while I might consider the value to be at 1.04, I am often happy to lay-off at say 1.06 just for that peace of mind and lower heart-rate).

Considering my previous post, this was rather a prescient observation, even to the exact price of 1.04 and my elevated heart-rate.

If only I read my own blog. I never realized just how much great advice I impart to you lucky readers.

Regarding my comment that you should “lock in a profit ONLY if your valuation is that the correct price is above 1.5. If not, then this is a bad profit” consider this.

Imagine you have placed a significant bet at the start of the season on Portsmouth to win the FA Cup at 1000, and somehow they reach the final to face a Championship team from south Wales. (Far-fetched I know, but bear with me). The price at which you can lay off is now down to 2.0, but other bookies (from which you have been barred for winning too much using advice gleaned from this blog) have them at 1.5, and this is the ‘correct’ price.

Do you take the profit, or let it run?

It's A Kind Of Magic

I have finally, I think, recovered from the stress of trading this morning’s Cleveland Cavaliers v Orlando Magic game like a novice - novice here being a polite term for idiot.

One of my frequent strategies is to lay any team at short odds pre-game since the downside is limited, and it is rare for the price not to move higher, often significantly, at some stage of the game. However, the Cavs had a phenomenal record at home this season, dropping just two games (one of those being the meaningless final game of the regular season), and I just couldn’t see them losing. Mistake number one, never fall in love with a team.

The first half was one-way traffic with the price never going higher than the 1.23 SP, and at half-time did I lay off at 1.05? No. They were ahead by 15, had finished the half strongly, and I offered 1.04. No takers, although some money did get matched at that price – sadly not mine. Mistake number two – 1.05 is ok. The downside of waiting for that extra tick is huge.

The second half starts, and is again one-way traffic, but this time the traffic was coming from the opposite direction, and Orlando steadily erased the deficit. Did I lock in my profit while I had the chance? No. Having mentally prepared myself for a set amount, I didn’t want to take any less. Stupid. The 1.04 was long gone, and even laying at 1.12 or so would have been the smart trade, but I was in love with my position. Even when Orlando took the lead, the market still liked the Cavaliers. At this point I was red-all-over, including my face, but I have watched enough basketball to know that the pre-game underdog is the value in this situation.

A big lay of the Cavaliers looked like a mistake as the final minute saw the Magic with a two point deficit, but a late three pointer saved the day. Timeouts are wonderful for balancing the books, and I gave back some of my Magic profit to ensure that any late heroics from LeBron James would not leave me with a loss, and in the end it all worked out ok. Some stupid errors though, and I dodged a bullet.

As an aside, I did take a moment during the second half to check my pulse – it was 93! That can’t be good. Here’s hoping for a smoother ride on the Lakers – Nuggets game tomorrow.

Halloween Indicator

There is a Stock market theory known as the Halloween Indicator which is based on the old adage “Sell in May, and go away”. As suggested by its name, the Halloween Indicator goes a step further and suggests a time to return and buy, namely Halloween. The reasoning is that historically the period from November to April has shown significantly stronger stock market growth that the excluded months of May through October.

Although this is often dismissed as a superstition, analysis by Bouman and Jacobsen in 2002 confirmed this effect in 36 of 37 countries they examined, including the UK. In many countries it was noticed that the stock market returns during the period May to October are often negative or lower than the short term interest rate. This flies in the face of financial theory which states that stock market returns should not be predictably lower than the short term (risk-free) interest rate.

As we are currently in May, you may well have seen reference to this in the papers recently. It’s one of those recyclable stories that the media loves, and whether this is an anomaly that you can exploit is debatable.

I have a similar Halloween effect on my trading accounts. My trading history does not go back quite so far as that of the Stock Market, (5 years versus 300), but my top six performing months are all between October and March, with the worst quarter being that of April through June.

Whereas for the Stock Market, there might be some mystery as to why the Halloween Indicator should occur, for me, there is no secret. My best sports occur in the October to March window. I like my trading to be fast and furious, and there is nothing that beats NBA or NFL for that. Football and Rugby are OK, but value is so hard to obtain with half the world watching.

Summer brings Cricket and Golf, but these are too slow for my liking although both have occasional big swings (pun intended). Baseball liquidity is at an all-time low this year, and although tennis is fast and furious, it’s only because court-siders are fast which leaves me furious.

Other summer events I have dabbled in are Formula One, Volleyball, Yachting, Aussie Rules, Darts, Athletics and Olympic swimming and Beach Volleyball, but I really should just close the computer down and take time off.

I’ll be back in October.

The Love Of Money

Another reason to be very wary about betting in the lower leagues. As a loser on one of the games under investigation, I demand a refund! Seriously, I hope this story is like most in the Daily Mail - sensational, but lacking in facts, and I tend to think that if some of this stuff was true, that it would have come out before now.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-1183467/EXCLUSIVE-Fears-FA-widen-probe-gambling-alleged-threats.html by Daniel King

At least five matches are being probed by football and gambling authorities for suspect betting patterns.

But The Mail on Sunday can reveal that betting on some games has taken a more sinister turn, with threats and intimidation by criminals added to the list of matches under investigation.

Last September, officials at Histon, the non-League club who beat Leeds on the way to the FA Cup third round this season, received telephone threats and the car of one was set on fire after a game against Lewes, in incidents confirmed by Cambridgeshire Police.

And it has been suggested that players and officials from Forest Green Rovers and Grays, whose match in the same Blue Square Premier last month is the latest known to be subject to an FA inquiry, were also threatened by third parties who were demanding the game finished a certain way.

An FA spokesman said: ‘Anything which interferes with the integrity of football is of great concern to us. We would do everything in our power to assist other bodies in addressing that.’

Although higher-level matches have also come under scrutiny in the past year — including Derby’s Championship clash with Norwich in October and the Accrington-Bury game in May last year, which led the FA to charge five players with breaking betting rules — the real unease surrounds gambling on matches just below the Football League.

Players and officials on lower wages are thought to be more tempted to risk breaking rules and to believe they are more likely to get away with it because the matches at that level take place, as one source put it, ‘under the radar’.

At least six matches are known to be under investigation for illicit betting, including Marine’s 4-0 defeat at Matlock in the UniBond Premier League last month and Weymouth’s 9-0 home defeat by Rushden in the Blue Square Premier in February.

But the word is that several more matches are also being investigated and that organised criminal activity is suspected in some cases.

Neither Forest Green nor Grays, nor the FA nor the Gambling Commission would comment on suggestions intimidation lay behind the alleged £1million betting coup in which large sums were staked on the 22-1 shot Grays recovering from a half-time deficit to win, which they did, 2-1.

But Histon chairman Gareth Baldwin confirmed rumours about events surrounding his club’s midweek game against Lewes on September 23.

Baldwin said: ‘Our club and its officials did receive threats and one of our officials did have his car blown up overnight after the game.’

Within 30 seconds of Lewes taking a surprise lead against a Histon side which was a short-priced favourite to win the game, the first of 38 threatening phone calls to seven club officials was made.

The caller warned of dire consequences if Histon did not win and claimed to know where officials worked and lived, and even where their children went to school.

A last-minute equaliser earned Histon a draw but at just before 1am the following morning, a car belonging to club president Peter Betson was set on fire outside a college at Cambridge University, where he works as a night porter.

About an hour later a female official received a call warning her to leave her house because it was about to be firebombed.

Further threats were received in the days following the game, including a warning that unless Histon paid £100,000 — the amount the caller claimed his group had lost — the team coach would be ambushed while travelling to or from a forthcoming game at Wrexham and everyone on board shot.

Cambridgeshire Police subsequently handed over the investigation to Merseyside Police, who were unable to confirm reports that a man had been charged in connection with the allegations.

Bulls hit Top Form

The greatest club Rugby tournament completed its regular season schedule this weekend and the Bulls claimed top-spot and home advantage in the semi-final and final (should they make it). Bulls have a 100% home record this season, and are value at 2.7 plus to win the tournament.

The first semi-final is the all-New Zealand affair with the Chiefs hosting the Hurricanes. The Chiefs won this match up just a few days ago 16-8, but will be missing All Black Brendon Leonard with a torn hamstring. I expect this game to be closer, but with the Chiefs again coming out on top.

The second semi sees South Africa's Bulls (champions in 2007) host NZ's Crusaders, who are the reigning champions. The regular season match between these two was played in Canterbury, with the hosts winning a close game 16-13. Expect the Bulls to reverse that result.

No prices yet on the exchanges for these games.

Brainlock

Earlier this week, I was reading about what psychologists call 'brainlock. It's that stunned and bewildered state that the majority of people find themselves in when confronted with a sudden crisis.

Apparently people essentially divide into three categories, in a 10-80-10 ratio. Around 10%of us handle a crisis in a relatively calm and rational state of mind. Another 10% of us freak out and lose it completely, whereas the great majority find that reasoning is significantly impaired and that thinking is difficult, and as a result we turn into statues.

I'm sure anyone who has done a significant amount of in-play trading has been confronted with a sudden turn of fortune, either for the better or, more likely perhaps, for the worse.

I have certainly had disasters where I have found myself doing a reasonable impression of a statue, but as the article said, that's OK. The response is not necessarily fatal, and doesn't last forever. The key is to recover quickly from the brainlock, shake off the shock, and figure out the best way forward.

And what is the best way forward? I would offer the following. Relax. Stay calm. Don't lose perspective. Sometimes things aren't as bad (or as good) as they seem. Stay focused. Don't give up on a bad situation. If you're looking at a four figure loss, and you can trim the loss to three figures, that's as good as a win.

After five years of trading, my statue moments are fewer. I have a different perspective on a potentially bad situation than I had a few years ago, and one good thing about disasters is learning from them so that next time, one is better prepared to deal with them.

"It is the greatest of all mistakes to do nothing because you can only do so little" - Sydney Smith.

Playoff Value - Where?

Three out of my six teams advanced in the Football League playoffs, and two of the losers went close. Milton Keynes Dons lost a dramatic penalty shoot-out against Scunthorpe, and failed to capitalise on their away draw in the first leg. With the exception of the Bank Holiday final, I shall probably be leaving the remaining games alone.

My ratings give Burnley a very slight edge over Sheffield United in the Championship play-off and as they are available at 2.12 on BETDAQ, this is the value bet.

League One I am still sulking about, but I have Millwall as the top rated team. Not sure if they are value yet though.

League Two has Gillingham as my favourites, but again the value is hard to find here.

Sunday sees two former minnows of the Football League playoff for the right to return there. Cambridge United have the slight edge both on rating and current form, and the 1.95 on Betfair is slight value, but not enough to justify my backing them. For no better reason than that Devon, along with Cornwall, is my favourite county, I would like to see Torquay win this one. That would complete a good season for south Devon.

A Screenshot Is Worth A Thousand Words

10k Hours

In his book “Outliers”, Malcolm Gladwell states that “it takes about 10,000 hours of work to achieve mastery in almost any endeavour”. That’s lot of time. Eight hours a day, seven days a week is close to 3½ years. About the length of a traditional apprenticeship in fact.

How many people sign up on the exchanges expecting to be instant winners? How many people try to short-circuit the apprenticeship period and buy a winning system? Forget it. There are no winning systems, just winning approaches.

Also from the aforementioned book – did you know that 70% of professional Canadian (ice) hockey players are born in the first half of the year?

In other news, Leeds United lost, which rather spoilt my 100% record in the play-offs so far, but value doesn’t equal guaranteed winner. If Milton Keynes Dons can finish off Shrewsbury Town (correction, thanks Tiger - Scunthorpe) tomorrow, it will still be a very successful play-off round.

However You Spin It

I spent many hours in my teens and twenties experimenting with dice and a roulette wheel trying to find the perfect staking plan to guarantee profits despite my imaginary bets not being value. My thinking was that surely with such a miniscule house edge in a game such as roulette, it should be quite possible to find a winning system. Of course, I never did. The plain and simple truth is that if your bets are not value, no staking system in the world can guarantee you a profit. Your success is dependent upon the vagaries of Lady Luck and while you may turn a profit for a while, sooner of later the inevitable and unavoidable losing run comes along that wipes out all your profits.

I was reminded of those halcyon days when a colleague at work told me about his latest roulette system. It was that old chestnut of betting on the even money choices and doubling up after a loss. Great in theory. In practice, not so great. You don’t need to spend too much time around a roulette table before you see a sequence of eight, nine or more come up. However, my colleague had thought about this, and here was his little secret. Wait until a colour hits three times, and THEN start betting on it! Apparently he has yet to lose using this ‘system’. I tried to point out to him that the whole idea was fundamentally flawed, and why, but he was having none of it.

There’s a long-running thread on the Betfair forum, Laying Alan Keyte’s Tips. It has worked well, not because of any fancy staking system, but simply because laying Alan Keyte’s selections has proven to be a value bet, at least so far. The ultimate in staking systems is of course Kelly, and it would be interesting to apply that to Alan Keyte’s results and see what a difference to the bank it would have made.

Saturday Round Up

As expected, Piacenza v Bari finished as a draw. When the pre-game price on the draw is in the 1.5 to 1.6 range, you know something is not right and while I'm not going to go crazy, this was something to be taken advantage of.

Rangers (draw no bet) was a good win for me. Pre-game my calculations had Rangers value at anything over 1.64, and with 1.83 available, I took advantage. I'm surprised this bet isn't more popular. Comparing two teams is much simpler if you take out the draw as a possibility.

My play-off bets are looking quite good right now. In the Championship, Sheffield United have the advantage going into the second leg at home to Preston, and Burnley take a 1-0 lead to Reading. This one is in the balance, but Burnley are in form and Reading aren't.

In League One, Millwall beat Leeds 1-0, but Leeds' form is good enough to make me feel they can still progress. MK Dons drew at Scunthorpe and have the advantage going into the second leg.

League Two and Bury won away to Shrewsbury and should progress. Gillingham drew at Rochdale and also should advance.

I got caught out by an early goal in the West Ham United v Liverpool game, and bailed out at half-time when it was 0-2 for a controlled loss. It's always hard to accept defeat, and of course annoying when there were no more goals until after my break-even point had been reached, but I think the decision was the right one.

Time - Your Greatest Resource

I was dreaming about my old school last night, doubtless a consequence of reading about the Old Boys’ Association and their proposed name change. I guess I am something of a traditionalist, and don’t much care for change. The school in question is generally called simply Trinity School, but its official name is Trinity School of John Whitgift. Until 1956, the school was known as Whitgift Middle, and thus the Old Boys’ Association were named the Old Mid-Whitgiftians. Perfectly logical and sensible, yet 1956 is now a long time ago, and the argument for changing the name is that not many club members attended the school during its former identity. I would be sad to see the name go though. Old Midwives is a cool nickname for the club if nothing else.

Time is a strange beast, and so relative. When I started at the school in 1967, it was only 11 years into its new identity, yet from my perspective the former name might as well have been from the 16th century. Sometimes, it’s only when you look back that you get the proper perspective on things. As a kid I would ride my bicycle around the Kenley Aeordrome, close to where I lived. Me and my friends, I had some in those days, would explore the blast-pens and the bunkers, but the tales of the war from back in the 1940s were again stories that had about as much relevance to me at the time as tales of Julius Caesar or William the Conqueror.

Looking back though, the war was less than 20 years prior. As I write, it is 64 years to the day since the war ended in Europe. My old Mum was at the gates of Buckingham Palace celebrating, and not so old as she is now. (Sadly, it was the last time any member of my family has had anything to celebrate at the Palace). It’s only as you get older I think, that you can get a fuller perspective of time. I remember reading that time seems slower when you are younger because as a percentage of your life, any time interval is more. For example when you are ten years old, it seems like an eternity from one Xmas to the next, because as a percentage of your life, you have to wait 10%. When you are 50, and yes, people do live to that ripe old age so I am told, one Xmas to the next is just 2%.

Anyway, so that this post can be included in a betting blog, I’ll just mention that my first ever bet was struck in my first year at Trinity, on May 29th 1968. I wagered a full 6d, that’s 2½p to you younger readers, on Benfica to beat Manchester United in the European Cup Final. The newspapers were full of talk of how it was 10 years since the Munich Disaster, but once again, at that tender age, an event from 10 years earlier was in the same frame of reference as the Titanic going down.

My school was also influential in teaching me probability and being where I learned what 11 to 4 really meant and what the origins were of such a strange format. Strangely enough, this was all explained during one of our weekly government mandated Religious Studies classes, called Divinity in my day. That was a waste of time. I think once I’d realised that Santa Claus was made up, (when I was about 17 I think), it wasn’t a giant leap to suspect that God was imaginary too, and nothing has happened since to persuade me otherwise. The lesson on betting odds was at least useful, and I suspect the teacher shared my opinion on religion and was pleased to have something real to talk about.

I actually had two ladies knocking at my door yesterday, I am being totally serious I swear to God, spreading the word of Jehovah. After a brief exchange of opinions, I think they went away questioning their faith! I heard such gems as "Evolution isn't real because dogs can't give birth to cats", and "The Earth is 6,000 years old". Sadly, they seemd quite sincere about this. "Isn’t that about when Portsmouth last won the league?" I asked. "Or was that Liverpool"? In either case, it’s so long ago as to be irrelevant today…

Biancorossi v Galletti - L'incontro e stato truccato!

A Serie B match doesn't usually attract too much interest on the Exchanges, but Saturday's game of Piacenza v Bari is an exception.

From the screenshot above, it should be clear just why. Piacenza are comfortable in mid-table, Bari are all but promoted to Serie A, so the game is pretty much meaningless, but 1.54ish pre-game on the draw? Something's going on. Fill your boots at your own risk, and if any of my grandmother's relatives find anything out, I'll be sure to pass the information on. After I've cashed in of course.

"We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don't like?" - Jean Cocteau

Hyaena & Edgy Nudities

Congratulations to Hayes and Yeading United (that's just one team by the way) who have made it to the Conference National by virtue of a 3-2 win away at Hampton and Richmond Borough (also just one team). Quite probably the longest named play-off fixture in history!

Not to belittle them in any way, (I think the pyramid structure is wonderful for football) but Hayes and Yeading's average attendance 2008-09?

347.

AFC Wimbledon on the other hand, averaged 3,219. That's pretty impressive.

I'm not sure the Hayes and Yeading win was the result the Conference were hoping for, but good luck to them next season against Luton Town et al. I feel they'll need it.

The post title? An anagram.

Last Ever UEFA Cup Semi-Final Bet

I will never, ever again, bet on a UEFA Cup Semi-Final game.

At 1-2 to Werder Bremen, the last ever UEFA Cup semi-final was slipping away from the home side Hamburg. The 66th minute goal for Werder Bremen meant that Hamburg had to score to progress, and I strayed from my usual conservative style and lumped on the Over 3.5 at 1.59, expecting the price to be considerably less. I figured this was good value, expecting the game to open up and see goal scoring opportunities at both ends. One of my better moves if I say so myself. 17 minutes later the bet was in, and in fact the game finished 2-3. After-timing at its best I know, but with in-play trading, it's all but impossible to post bets before-hand, since the action depends on the game situation.

Incidentally, is it just me, or is German football lacking something that the game in England, Italy and Spain has?

Play-Off Preview

The play-offs are set, and here are my ratings:

Championship:

Sheffield United 1162 v Preston North End 1030
Reading 915 v Burnley 1139

The ratings suggest Sheffield United and Burnley to meet in the final although Preston is the team in form, always handy at play-off time! Reading will probably be favourites to qualify, so Burnley should be available at a tasty price. To win the final, Sheffield United are 3.55, with Burnley available at 4.0.

League One:

MK Dons 678 v Scunthorpe United 597
Leeds United 793 v Millwall 593

MK Dons v Leeds United is a strong pick here for the final. Both teams also have the better form right now. Leeds are favourite at 2.79, with MK Dons at 3.7.

League Two:

Bury 414 v Shrewsbury Town 363
Gillingham 382 v Rochdale 300

Bury and Gillingham here. Not only are they higher rated, but these teams also have the better form. Bury are 3.65 for promotion, Gillingham are at 3.8.

Betactual - True Form Continues

I need say no more about the 'professional tips service' other than to show their results from the last six days. Funny how those runs of one loser in 46 selections, 27 of which were at evens or better, have come crashing to a halt once they go live. If it seems too good to be true...

The Pilgrim Factor

In the 1920s, Plymouth Argyle finished as runners-up in Division Three (South) no less than six years in a row. In the days when pay for professional footballers was a fixed sum regardless of what division they were playing in, but were awarded win bonuses, players would make more money playing for a winning team in a lower league than for a losing team in a higher league.

Perhaps even today, some players are happier winning more often at a lower level. What other explanation is there for teams with a great chance of making the play-offs or promotion,folding in their last games? Last weekend in the Conference, Cambridge United, Stevenage Borough, Kidderminster Harriers and Oxford United all failed to win key home games, and today Dagenham and Redbridge handed a play-off spot to Shrewsbury Town by losing 1-2 at home to their rivals.

Scunthorpe almost did the same at home to Tranmere Rovers, leaving it to the 88th minute before levelling the game and notching up the one point they needed. Wycombe Wanderers and Bury both messed up home games. Wycombe lost, and Bury scored a 95th minute penalty to win 1-0, when just one more goal would have seen them promoted. So close.

Based on this evidence, a lay of Reading tomorrow is looking good value at 2.24. Cue comfortable win for the Royals.

Buy and Hold v Trading

I like to mess about with shares from time to time, although the time I used to spend looking for bargains is now mostly spent investing on sports, and as I have mentioned many times before on here, there are many similarities between financial investing and sports investing.

Financial experts have for years recommended a Buy-and-Hold strategy, but caution that this doesn’t mean “buy and forget about it”. The “buy and forget about it” strategy can be compared with outright punting on sports, whereas active trading can be compared with, well, active trading.

In financial investing, there is a not insignificant cost associated with frequent forays into the market; commission on each trade, tax implications etc., whereas (for now at least), no such penalty hits someone doing the same in sports.

Whether you buy a stock that has performed well in the past, or you back the highly rated favourite in the 2:30 at Epsom, the principle is the same. The time-frames are rather different, but if it makes sense to sell your stock that is no longer performing well, and move the funds to another investment choice, then surely it makes sense to trade out your position on the horse if it starts to lose ground?

In the old days, sports investors didn’t have the option to trade out of a position, and in truth, many don’t even care to today, even though that option is available. For a lot of people, a bet is not an investment. They want the thrill of the action rather than the responsibility of trying to make money from it. If it wins, that’s great, something to tell your mates about at the pub, and if it loses, no worries – on to the next race, and forget it.

For me, the ability to trade has been the single most important factor in making investing consistently profitable. Pre-market, the prices are usually about where they should be, (the markets are efficient), and unless you have some inside information there is no long-term benefit to betting on these events. With trading however, opportunities for finding value occur much more frequently and, you can combine your experience of the markets and reading of the game to take advantage.

Blades Steel Promotion?

The final weekend of the Football League season promises to be almost as exciting as last weekend’s conclusion to the Conference.

In the Championship, the key games are Reading v Birmingham City and Crystal Palace v Sheffield United. A draw at Reading will mean promotion for Sheffield United if they can win at fortress Selhurst Park, and given that Neil Warnock is a lifelong Blades fan, and that Simon Jordan detests Birmingham with a passion, it would hardly be a massive surprise were Palace to lower the drawbridge. Certainly the prices on Betfair (1.67) suggest that I’m not the first person to spot this. If Birmingham (3.6) should win at Reading, then up they go, but my ratings and current form suggest that they won’t. Promotion would certainly seem to be justice for Sheffield United after the Tevez affair, and as they are top rated in my exclusive Cassini Ratings And Performance standings, I can’t say it wouldn’t be deserved.

Burnley need a win (1.55) to secure a play-off spot and at home to Bristol City, should achieve that.

At the bottom, it’s looking very much like Norwich will complete a trio of relegated former Premier League teams. It’s certainly very sad to see Charlton struggling so badly…

In League One, the only promotion related issue is Scunthorpe or Tranmere Rovers for the play-offs, and Scunthorpe have the advantage playing at home and needing just a draw (3.4). Brighton will probably survive, and can look forward to playing Charlton next season. Lucky them.

In League Two, once again Bury and Accrington Stanley play each other on the final day of the season, but this year there’s a little more at stake for Bury. If they win (1.41), and Exeter fail to win at Rotherham, then Bury are promoted. Dagenham and Redbridge host Shrewsbury Town for a play-off spot, and again, as with Scunthorpe and Tranmere, the home team (2.2) has the edge by playing at home and needing just a draw (3.45).

At the bottom, I think Chester City might go down. I just can’t see them winning and Grimsby Town losing by a net 19 goals…

April - May

April wasn’t a profitable month overall due to one stupid error, resulting in my first losing month since October last year, but the loss for the month ended up being trimmed to just 2.11% of winnings in the first quarter of 2009, (see chart left), but still a loss. 

Although I’d obviously rather not lose, I would rather take a loss from a mistake than from a previously profitable approach going bad. I’ll be back.

At first sight, it doesn’t look good that every month since February has been worse than the previous month, but this is a familiar trend looking at past years. May through August is always a quiet period. May last year was a minor disaster, so a steady month will at least see my year-on-year average increase, although sadly, with the Premium Charge these days, that’s not the cause for excitement that it used to be.

I’ve been reducing the impact of the Premium Charge by arbitraging on BETDAQ, and elsewhere, and of course, in the cloud of a losing month, PC reduction is the silver lining.

So what does May offer? The IPL has been profitable so far, and baseball is in full ‘swing’ and with greater parity these days (no team winning more than 62% of their regular season games in the last four years), I have come up with an idea that seems to be paying off so far. Betfair this week upped the in-play delay to 6 seconds, and whether that actually brings in more in-play money or less remains to be seen.

Football is winding down for the season, and there should be some cracking playoff games and cup finals, but football is still a tough nut to crack consistently. I was ahead last month on this, but not by enough to pay off the mortgage. Maybe one brick is now mine.

Ice Hockey is in full playoff mode right now, but is useless for trading, a result of increasing the delay time to 8 seconds a couple of seasons back. That’s why the future of in-play baseball concerns me. Like baseball, ice-hockey is one of those sports where the market tends to hold on to the pre-game favourite too long, and it is often possible to find value, if only there was some money around!

Basketball seems to have plenty of liquidity, and the play-offs have seen plenty of good games for trading, especially in the Boston Celtics – Chicago Bulls series which has had seven overtime periods (from four OT games) in the first six games. Game Seven on Saturday night I believe. Just lay the leader, and wait for the other team to bounce back. Basketball is very much a game of momentum, and if you watch the game enough, you will learn to recognize the momentum turning moments.

This should all be enough action to keep me out of trouble. I shall not be visiting the Casino, Exchange Games or Arcade anyway, and after reading about the cheating scandals at Absolute Poker and UltimateBet, I’ll stay away from the online poker too. For a while I played a lot of poker, but online poker just isn’t the same. You need to have your opponents there in front of you, it’s a key part of the game. Plus, it’s nice to know that the game is legit too.

Winning System - Patience Required

One of the more curious incidents of my Betfair life occurred within a month of my opening the account, which is why I failed to take maximum advantage of the opportunity. I was exploring the site one Saturday, looking at different markets in a number of countries, and was checking a web site to see what football results they covered.

Incredibly, I stumbled across one game in a foreign land that appeared to have just finished, yet the market on Betfair still not been suspended with the kick-off time a few minutes away. Always aware that when something seems too good to be true, it probably is, and knowing that scoreboards can be unreliable, I tentatively placed a whopping £20 on the draw. I was pondering a deeper plunge, when the market suspended.

It wasn’t an in-play game, but two hours later I got paid out. I think there was a probably a late change in the kick-off time that neither Betfair, nor anyone else for that matter, had noticed, and my only regret is that I didn’t capitalize more on what really was free money. Back then I only had a low three figure bank anyway, so £20 really was quite a large percentage of my bank, and of course, had I really cleaned up, someone might have been a little upset and all bets would have been declared void had the problem been discovered.

I haven’t seen this occurrence again, and do feel slightly guilty about it. It’s one thing taking advantage of someone’s mistake, but it’s quite another when someone loses money as a result of Betfair erring. Oh well, I figure the statute of limitations has expired on this by now.

Five Years

I was planning on writing a post to mark the fifth anniversary of opening an account with Betfair later this week, but I have just discovered that the occasion passed quietly by last month. So rather than have both my readers wait another five years for my words of wisdom, I’ll write my post anyway.

How time flies. It’s quite remarkable how something completely unknown to me just five years and a few days ago has transformed into an almost all-consuming activity. I started with £2 bets. I’m not reckless by nature, and it seemed to me then, as it still does, that you only need a small bank to start with. If you have a winning approach, then the bank will take care of itself, and if you don’t, then better to learn the lesson with a small bank than a big bank.

I read on the forum about people depositing money into their accounts time and time again. Why? If you’re losing, give it up. From small acorns, big oak trees grow, but they don’t grow quickly. I spent hours back in 2004 and 2005 studying the markets, learning how they reacted to certain scenarios. I spotted one or two things and made a little money, but nothing to get too excited about. I made mistakes, and usually learned from them too. Some were small, some weren’t so small, but the key is to learn from them.

I soon realised that the only way to consistently win was by trading. With thousands of people pricing up a market pre-game, who am I, an outsider, to think that I can consistently beat the market? I can’t. But what in-play trading offers is an opportunity to pit wits against others, and combine a knowledge of sports with an understanding of the emotions of trading, and hopefully come out ahead. I recommend the trading books* by Dr. Van K Tharp if anyone is serious about trading.

There is a lot of nonsense written on the betting forums about fast ways to make money from gambling. There is a way to make money from gambling, but there is no holy grail ‘system’. There are opportunities out there though, if you put in the effort to learn.

Specialise. Learn how the markets react. Be fearful when others are bold, and bold when others are fearful. When a team is winning, it’s often hard to see them finishing up as losers, and other people think the same. What happens when lots of people want the same thing? The price is driven down too low on the leaders, and the value is in laying them. You may lose more often than you win, but if your bets are not value, then you will lose in the long run. End of story.

Keep records. They don’t need to be not hugely detailed records, but enough to let you know what is working and what isn’t. It’s enormously helpful after a bad loss to be able to look back and see what happened before, and how the bank eventually recovered. It can be tempting to go on tilt after a bad loss, with the attitude that you’ve already lost £500, what’s another £200, but if you can look back at history, it’s very reassuring.

I have learned that when it comes to trading, everything should not always be about ‘today’. Trading is nothing more than a series of wins and losses strung together over a long periods of time. There is no way to eliminate risk or loss, because risk is an equal part to reward in our equation. Focus on keeping loss controlled is a very different aspect than fixation on avoiding all losses, period. One is a normal part of the operation, the other is a path to failure.

* Tharp, Van K. (1998). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom. McGraw-Hill. ISBN 0-07-064762-3.

Tharp, Van K.; June, Brian (2000). Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading. McGraw-Hill. ISBN 0-07-136295-9.

Conference Thoughts

Torquay United made my day yesterday with a win over Burton Albion, but there were some strange results elsewhere in the Conference, including one meaningless game that has been reported to the authorities for ‘suspicious betting patterns’.

First, the boat-race boys - Cambridge United failed to beat Altrincham, when a good win would have seen them automatically promoted. Oxford United, in with a shot at a play-off spot, fell at home to relegated Northwich Victoria, and if they want ‘out of this poxy league’ they are going to need to do better than that. (I guess the boss was still upset about the five point deduction that ultimately cost them their place in the play-offs, although not winning your matches doesn’t help).

Stevenage and Kidderminster also failed to win their ‘must-win’ games although Stevenage got away with it thanks to other results.

So the play-offs loom, with an all- Cambridgeshire final a possibility. The semi-final first legs are this week, and Cambridge play at Stevenage on Thursday with Torquay hosting Histon on Friday.

It’s interesting that the teams are in reverse order as far as current form is concerned with Stevenage top, followed by Torquay, Histon and finally Cambridge. These games are usually tight, but I am leaning towards backing the home teams in the first legs. This may become a lay of the away teams, depending on how the prices settle.

The suspicious game was Grays Athletic v Forest Green Rovers with an unusual amount of money for a meaningless game being placed on Grays to be losing at half-time, and winning at full-time. Betting was suspended by a couple of bookmakers the day before the match, and while bets of three figures don’t sound like much, at 22-1 that makes for a nice pay day. The result? Grays were 0-1 down at half-time before winning 2-1… Very interesting.

Final Day Countdown

And now for something completely different. This afternoon’s Conference National fixtures. The only game in-play is the Torquay United v Burton Albion game, with the Gulls the selection at 2.24. Burton’s current form is the worst of ALL the Conference teams, and with Torquay needing a win to guarantee a play-off spot, and a friendly crowd , they can win this.

Cambridge United, with automatic promotion a possibility, host Altrincham, whose players already have one foot in Benidorm (or wherever Conference players holiday these days). Cambridge will win this, and are at 1.23. Borderline value. Anyway, if the net margin of victories by Torquay and Cambridge is 5 goals or greater, then it is Cambridge who will rejoin the Football League.

Histon are already in the play-offs and with little to play for, I am leaving their game at Crawley alone. Stevenage should be too strong for Mansfield, and need to win (1.79) to avoid being pipped at the post by Kidderminster who are 1.5 to beat Kettering at home, and will. Oxford should also beat Northwich at 1.36, but their fate is not in their feet, and I will be leaving this one alone.

I love final afternoons like these. It’s what real football supporting is all about. Keeping track of the latest scores and looking at the permutations as they change every few minutes. Burton all but had this league sewn up a few weeks ago. Perhaps they are another club whose players already had one foot on the beach, only in their case, it’s on the Devon Riviera that they find themselves, not the Spanish one, and the season is not quite over. I suspect that when the dust has settled tomorrow, Burton Albion will have clinched promotion (1.29), even if it is only on goal difference.

What price on AFC Wimbledon topping this league next season? I have to say that when the club was formed I thought the whole enterprise was doomed to failure, but in less than seven years the club are now just one step away from the Football League and playing the likes of former top division teams Luton Town and Oxford United. That is a great story.

Exclusive Follow-Up

Just a quick post to follow up on last week’s “Exclusive” on Betactual, and their results are going from bad to worse. As I reported last week, in the entire year of 2008, they had just 19 losers, a figure that seems too good to be true, and based on the fact that they have had 18 losers in the past month alone, I think it is safe to say that these results were indeed too good to be true. 15 of the last 27 picks have lost, and just two of the winners have been longer than Evens - at a whopping 2.05 and 2.1… Save your money, and buy a pin. You can hardly do any worse.

Burton Stumbling

Over the last few years, my interest in non-league football has increased significantly. Back in my day, there was very little coverage, but these days they have their own magazine, live games on TV, and much greater exposure in the media. This greater interest started when the Conference was first formed, and took a giant leap when the Football League took the long overdue decision to get rid of the re-election process and allow automatic promotion and relegation to / from the Conference. And now with the pyramid structure in place, every team in the numerous leagues has, in theory at least, the chance to reach the top.

Back to my day again, and it seemed like the league never changed. I am too young to remember Accrington Stanley being replaced by Oxford United in 1962 (a switch that was so poetically reversed in 2006), but I do remember Cambridge United replacing Bradford Park Avenue in 1970. Wimbledon (1977) and Wigan (1978) joined the league a little later, before the floodgates opened with automatic promotion in 1987.

Anyway, this is all a rather waffly way to lead into the fact that this Sunday sees some rather exciting games at the top on the Conference National League. Burton Albion in pole position play at Torquay United in 5th spot, and who need a win to guarantee a playoff spot. Having once held a 19 point lead, Burton still need one more point to guarantee that after a gap of 102 years, League football will return to the town. Now I don't actually remember this myself, but Burton did have two Football League teams for three seasons, (Swifts and Wanderers) the smallest town in England ever to do so.

Cambridge United in second place are assured a playoff spot and play at home to Altrincham, who have nothing to play for. A decent win by Cambridge combined with a loss by Burton Albion, and Cambridge can steal promotion. Unlikely, but not impossible. Histon in third place, and all but certain of a playoff spot play at Crawley Town, while fourth place Stevenage Borough need a win at Mansfield. Currently just outside the playoff spots are Kidderminster Harriers at home to Kettering Town, and Oxford United at home to relegated Northwich Victoria.

I am more interested in these games as a fan of football than from an investing perspective, but I shall be checking the prices closer to kick-off to see if anything stands out.

My Cassini ratings differ quite significantly from the league standings. In order, I have Stevenage (344), Oxford (338), Cambridge (323), Torquay (294), Kidderminster (278), Histon (259) and Burton (249) which would suggest wins for all the top teams bar Burton. It could all get very interesting.

Tipping Service Exposed - Exclusive!

On March 28th, Trade On Sports highlighted a football tipping website, and their supposed results up to that date did look quite impressive. I'm not sure how many members, if any, they had prior to the end of last month but now they have received some attention, it is clear that their results have taken a distinct turn for the worse.

The initial post was this. "Finally my attention was drawn to the following tipster site www.betactual.com Their record is quite amazing. I have studied football betting for years and every weekend compile my own odds to look for value. And have been relatively successful, but these guys look to be on a different level."

While I was researching the website, I found an amusing thread about them. Someone started the thread asking "anyone had any experience with this. results look very impressive but costly. would be interested in a syndicate effort?"

You need to be a signed up member to comment, and less than eight hours later, a newly signed up member casper47 had posted: "i have account in betactual and is realy good. First time take 1 month but after i take 1 year pack ( only 1,5 euro per day - i play much more money in year...). The best support (Sara is the best) and no hidden or fake results. Before i have try with others but..."

The next day, another poster revealingly wrote: "Have done a little more investigating.I'm sure you can draw your own conclusions. The domain betactual is registered to Fotios Nikitopoulus. Casper47 registered on the forum with the email nikitofotis@.........."

Finally, the initial post received an anonymous comment, but the style is somewhat familiar: "Think's for the site betactual.com.I listened for a few days the site. 01-04 paid subscription for 1 month. Score Win = 6. Lose = 1 Today for the first time gave 3 tips. They won all 3. I put the all together and had very good profit. I appreciate them. They sent congratulations today and I mentioned your site (if not mind)."

Anyway, I would save your money. After just 19 losses in 2008, and 6 losses in 66 days prior to the above postings, their tips have lost 10 out of the last 25, and with 9 of those winners at less than evens, you won't be getting rich any time soon.

NBA Play-Offs

Back in October last year, I wrote a post about the 2008-09 NBA season and made some predictions. The regular season has now finished, so it is time to look back and look forward. Here is that original post from almost six months ago:

Who will win the NBA Championship this year? My fancy is last year's losing finalists the Lakers (4.6 to win the NBA championship) in the strong West, with the Spurs (14) and the Suns (20) safe lays.In the East, my lay is the Celtics (4.7). It's been a few years since a champion has repeated, and I don't expect Boston to end that sequence. Despite losing their opener, the Cavaliers (18) are good value to again make the play-offs and win the East.

The Lakers did indeed comfortably win the West, although they will not have home court advantage all through if the Cavaliers win the East. The Cavaliers home record was impressive, losing only to the Lakers (other than the meaningless final game of the season yesterday). The Suns failed to make the play-offs at all, and Spurs limped in.

Summary: To win NBA - Back Lakers at 4.6, currently 2.76; Lay Spurs at 18, currently 34; Lay Suns at 20, eliminated, Lay Celtics at 4.7, currently 6.6. To win East, Back Cavaliers at 18, currently 1.68.

Lakers v Jazz: Hard to see anything other than a Lakers win here, although they did lost at Utah during the regular season, and the Jazz are good at home.

Cavs v Pistons: Cavaliers to win comfortably.

Nuggets v Hornets: Denver on a great run at home right now, New Orleans out of form. Nuggets to win.

Celtics v Bulls: Kevin Garnett may well miss the play-offs completely which seriously dents their chances of a second title. The Bulls may fancy their chances now, even without Croydon's finest (Luol Deng), but I think the Celtics will survive.

Spurs v Mavs: The Mavs are in good form right now, while the Spurs appear to be struggling, although capable of playing very well on any one day. Mavs to win.

Magic v Sixers: On their day, the Magic can beat anyone, but they are unreliable. I think they will be good enough to beat the Sixers though.

Blazers v Rockets: Nothing between these two teams, well, one game, but the form is with Portland.

Hawks v Heat: The Hawks won three out of four regular season games between these two teams, and should win, but Miami can be dangerous to oppose. Hawks to win, but I shall be leaving this one alone.

Sgt. Pepper Taught The Band To Play

Twenty years ago today, I headed off to Selhurst Park, hoping to see Crystal Palace pick up an important three points in their match against Portsmouth. Palace were third in the old Division Two, and hoping to catch Manchester City for that second automatic promotion spot. Chelsea had already locked up the first.

A couple of hundred miles north, and other football fans were headed to Hillsborough, Sheffield, where Liverpool were playing Nottingham Forest in an FA Cup Semi-Final.

I returned home after the Palace game, and life went on as normal. For 95 Liverpool fans, that afternoon was the last one of their lives.

My memories of that day are that at some point during the first half, word started filtering through the stand at Palace that there had been some problems at Hillsborough. I made my way up to the players lounge and watched the chaotic scenes unfolding live on TV. As with most disasters, the death toll started with a low number of unconfirmed deaths, followed by higher and higher numbers of confirmed deaths, before the final toll of 95 was reached. The death toll rose to 96 many months later when the last victim passed away.

I think that for all football fans of that era, this tragedy felt particularly close to home. Most of us had probably been in crowds where more people than was safe were crammed into enclosed areas. Certainly, following Palace, one had to expect big crowds at every game. It was all a bit of a laugh back then, surging back and forth with ones feet barely touching the ground, and in my youthful naiveté, I for one never seriously thought that I was in any danger.

The Ibrox Disaster of 1971 (66 dead) happened when I was too young to really understand it, and I certainly don’t recall the one of 1902 (26 dead). Nor indeed the one of 1946 at Burnden Park, although a former girlfriend’s mother was at that game and told me that the thing she remembered about it was all the shoes lying on the ground. The bodies of 33 dead had been removed, but the shoes remained.

Back to 1989 and the following day, I remember the TV showing clubs pulling down the fences that surrounded the pitches in those days. I don’t miss those, but I do miss the standing areas at football grounds which were lost as a result of the inquiry into the disaster. I rarely attend games these days, but it still doesn’t seem right to be sitting down.

Life goes on, and a year later, and Liverpool were again in an FA Cup Semi-Final, this time against my own Crystal Palace. Standing on the Holte End watching Palace win an extra-time thriller 4-3 was probably the zenith of my Palace supporting days, - we lost the final, although we did win the Zenith Data Systems Cup Final at Wembley a year later. (Never before, in the history of blogging, has the word ‘zenith’ been used so many times in one sentence).

April Fool

Easter Sunday was one of those days. Perhaps I should start going to church?

A big loss (biggest since May 19th 2008) on the first NBA game of the day completely discombobulated me to the extent where I had to just take a break from the action.

I find that after a bad loss, (and this was a stupid loss – left a bet up and assumed that the market would be suspended), my confidence is shot for a while, and it’s best to take a break. I lost three weeks profits in one hit by not concentrating.

I did dip my toes back in the water with a small bet (and profit) on the Masters but my heart wasn’t in it, and I spent the rest of the evening getting things into perspective.

It really helps to be able to look back and see previous bad losses and how I recovered from them. The May 19th 2008 loss took me four months to recover from, which seems like an eternity, but I am confident I have learned from mistakes I made back then, and will bounce back in less time than that.

The bottom line is that no one died, no one was diagnosed with a terminal illness, no one will be going hungry, and all I lost were a few points off the total in my account. And perhaps the pride took a bit of a hit too.

Had the loss been in the stock market or from the value of my house, I would hardly have blinked, and in the whole scheme of things it’s a petty annoyance that will be all but forgotten in a few months. It won’t be completely forgotten, because I tend to recall my bigger losses easier than my bigger wins. 

Something to do with loss aversion I believe.

Betting Scandal

Apologies for the lack of recent posts, but it is the Easter holidays and I'm spending a few days with my son and not focusing too much on investing.

I did read earlier in the week that five players have been charged by the Football Association for breaching betting rules, with some accused of gambling "thousands of pounds". I can't say I have any sympathy with someone who bets against their own team to lose, but I do have some for poor Peter Cavanagh whose involvement is alleged to consist of having had a £5 accumulator bet. Hardly too serious I wouldn't have thought. It smacks of going along with the others rather than any serious crime.

I don't think footballers have ever been accused of being particularly intelligent as a group (Steve Coppell excepted), but did these saps really think that betting thousands on an Accrington Stanley v Bury game would go unnoticed?

I remember reading about the Peter Swan, Tony Kay and David Layne betting scandal of the early 1960s, which resulted in jail time and bans for the players involved. Peter Swan had played for England and could well have been one of the World Cup winning squad of 1966, but for the sake of winning £100 betting against his own Sheffield Wednesday to lose to Ipswich Town he spent four months in prison instead. Tony Kay was at one time English football's most expensive player, a tag not likely to be associated with any of the Accrington Five.