Friday, 24 February 2012

Box Clever

Off to the snow very shortly, but I had to find time to address the comment from Swearbox relating to my last post: He wrote:
I see I'm headlining again though it appears for all the wrong reasons. I could write a novel in response but alas there's not enough room in the comment buffer. One thing I can say with confidence though is that I'm definitely not John O'Dwyer.

Some comments...

1. "For the umpteenth time, if you have an edge, you do not need a large bank. You can build up slowly from a relatively small deposit, but you need to be disciplined about it."

I don't claim to have an edge.
2. "but to have any chance at making a long-term profit, you need to be very selective about your betting"

I agree wholeheartedly.
3. "Deposit whatever money you can afford to lose into your account, and leave it alone. Let it grow."

I assume this means you have another stream of income with which to pay bills that would mean you aren't betting for a living.
4. "If there was no edge, the 'winning' run was false"

For three years ?
5. "but either the edge went away, or 'luck' ran out."

Neither. Read my post again. I mismanaged my account leaving me with a much smaller bank but I still attempted to play to the same daily targets. I fkd up.
5. "And yes, edges do most definitely exist over the longer term, although they may not last for ever"

Nailed it. Refer to comment #4
I'm not sure if you thought I was having a go at you on my blog but I can assure you I wasn't. I'm guilty as charged of breaking most of the rules that I used to follow rigorously in the past. I just get the feeling though that you're nailing me to the cross here which is a little unfair as I don't claim to be anything that I'm not.
To which I would say that the John O'Dwyer reference was a joke, although your stories have some similarities, but also:

1. If you don't have an edge, forget about betting. Give your money to charity, and feel good about it.

2. You say you agree wholeheartedly, but betting on obscure games in Argentina and horse-races in Australia suggest otherwise.

3. Betting for a living starting with nothing, and no safety-net or primary income doesn't work. See previous posts. I know for a fact that you can build up to six figures starting with two figures - with an edge. (Seven might be difficult with new hurdles being introduced every few months). Find an edge, and the smallest bank will grow given time.

4/5. If the edge is still there, you have it made. Deposit £100 that you don't need, and build up slowly again. I suspect the edge is no longer there - an edge isn't having a large bank. It is in finding bets that are value.

My intention in pointing these things out to you is not to 'nail you to the cross', but to make you realise that your mindset (which is the subject that triggered these posts and comments) is wrong, and that you need to look closely at your betting habits if you seriously want to be profitable.

Long-term profits are not to be found in middle of the night Argentinian Second Division or on the Australian race tracks, betting with money you need.

Find yourself an edge, play with money you don't need for anything else, and the bank will look after itself.

Back in a few days.

1 comment:

Mike Woodhouse said...

An interesting debate, this.

I think it's clear that a three-year, making-a-living-at-it profitable period either constitutes having an edge or a lucky streak of epic proportions.

Further, trading Argentine non-league football or regional tiddlywinks with no underlying knowledge of the event, its participants (or even the sport?) might be rational, if the edge lies in an intuitive understanding of the behaviour of in-running market dynamics.

But that's a lot of "ifs". And worse, market dynamics change over time usually acquiring more sophistication, at least if there's a profit to be made. I no longer play online poker for that reason - the overall standard of play reached a level where I couldn't beat the games any more without an investment in my own expertise that I wasn't prepared to make.