Sunday, 19 February 2012

Mind Games

Another weekend over, and the results are included in the updated Friendly Tipster Table above. The lack of English Premier League games meant less activity than normal, but for those in action today, the highlights were another win for the XX Draws as Sporting de Gijon drew 1-1 with Atletico Madrid for a small profit on the weekend.
Backing the Lay The Draw selection is doing poorly right now, with that method falling into the red and dropping from third to sixth in the table, although Ian will be delighted. Other than that, there were no positional changes. Mark J had one winner from three selections for a small loss, while Football Elite had one more loser to finish 0 for 3 on the weekend. The Green Pullover had two draws from six, for a small profit, and that's about it for the weekend's football. I am off to the snow for a short break next weekend, so expect a delay in blog updates, although XX Draw Selections will be sent out as usual. The fact that next weekend is the NBA all-star break is merely a fortunate coincidence.

Finally, a great link posted by Peter Webb for a Financial Times piece on loss of form, which is well worth a read. As Peter mentions, this is something to take note of in sports like golf, where players can go cold in a hurry. As I write this, Phil Mickelson, after trading at 1.36, is now at 7.6+ as he appears to have lost confidence in his putting which was such a strength last week. Peter suggests that 'performance anxiety' is less of a factor in team sports, but for me, it is definitely a factor in sports where the team is small, such as basketball or ice-hockey. Poor Scott Gomez of the Montreal Canadiens only recently ended a 53 game goal scoring drought which lasted for more than a calendar year. It makes Fernando Torres' 5 goals in 47 matches look like a sharp run of form.

1 comment:

swearbox said...

Hi Cassini,

Read the FT article with interest and it got me thinking whether or not such a thing as 'performance anxiety' exists within the field of professional sports betting.

Seriously though, bear with me...consider this taken from Peter's blog...

"It’s curious how you can show two people a very clear strategy and yet while one person executes flawlessly, the other just can’t do it"

Several years ago I found myself in the some would say enviable position whereby I didn't have to go out to work. My betting related situation had evolved to the point where it became my sole income provider. My info was emailed every day and there was a set strategy to follow. It paid for nice things. Life was good.

I felt confident enough with the way things were going to make a life change and move to Canada. Naturally there were expenses associated with this move but not lifestyle threatening ones. Shortly after arriving in Canada I made a few financial decisions that with hindsight were foolish. They resulted in my leaving myself with a much lower capital base from which to carry out my usual betting related activities.

Then, all of us, as a betting syndicate, suffered a really bad week. Shit happens. I lost more that I would have liked resulting in an even lower available bank. That's when things started to go very wrong.

Instead of blindly following the rules of the strategy I made my own rules up. I questioned prices. I stepped back when I should have stepped forward. I didn't lay when the price was in my mind too high regardless of what the info in the email said about the horse's chances of winning. In the case of shorties I layed when the price was slightly higher than the price advised in the mail. I was losing when I shouldn't and not winning when I should have been. A complete mess.

The more I tried to tweak an already proven system the worse it got...and the driver behind all of this was not so much my ever dwindling bank but my mindset. The result was I ended up with no bank left. I had completely screwed up what was a simple monkey see monkey do system that worked.

I don't mind telling you that I've never recovered those days of old before the meltdown and every day I regret not having the mental smarts at the time to be able to calm down and take a deep breath and stick to the plan.

As always, your blog is a great source of interesting articles...keep on keeping on.