Musings on Backing, Laying, Trading, Punting, In-Running and more on the Betting Exchanges (Betfair, BETDAQ) and related items of interest in the wide world of sports investing since 2008. This is NOT a P&L blog. "
Another weekend over, and the results are included in the updated Friendly Tipster Table above. The lack of English Premier League games meant less activity than normal, but for those in action today, the highlights were another win for the XX Draws as Sporting de Gijon drew 1-1 with Atletico Madrid for a small profit on the weekend.
Backing the Lay The Draw selection is doing poorly right now, with that method falling into the red and dropping from third to sixth in the table, although Ian will be delighted. Other than that, there were no positional changes. Mark J had one winner from three selections for a small loss, while Football Elite had one more loser to finish 0 for 3 on the weekend. The Green Pullover had two draws from six, for a small profit, and that's about it for the weekend's football. I am off to the snow for a short break next weekend, so expect a delay in blog updates, although XX Draw Selections will be sent out as usual. The fact that next weekend is the NBA all-star break is merely a fortunate coincidence.
Finally, a great link posted by Peter Webb for a Financial Times piece on loss of form, which is well worth a read. As Peter mentions, this is something to take note of in sports like golf, where players can go cold in a hurry. As I write this, Phil Mickelson, after trading at 1.36, is now at 7.6+ as he appears to have lost confidence in his putting which was such a strength last week. Peter suggests that 'performance anxiety' is less of a factor in team sports, but for me, it is definitely a factor in sports where the team is small, such as basketball or ice-hockey. Poor Scott Gomez of the Montreal Canadiens only recently ended a 53 game goal scoring drought which lasted for more than a calendar year. It makes Fernando Torres' 5 goals in 47 matches look like a sharp run of form.
I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.