Thursday, 16 February 2012

Selections Century

A quick update following last night's games, which saw the one XX Draw Selection, Parma v Juventus, finish another perfect draw. That is 100 selections for the season to date, with an ROI% on the Draws standing at 10% and the Under ROI at an even more impressive 13.4%.

For the record, this season's strike rate is 31%, close to the overall strike rate of 32.9% from 304 selections. After 80 games, the strike rate was as low as 27.5%, with a negative ROI of -3.3%, but when the average price is 3.58, long runs are inevitable. 100 bets is not many, but with few selections a week, even a modest losing run can last for a long time! The selections from 81 to 100 are shown below:
Omega Betting commented on my comment on his post about the Wolves Next Manager Market that basically questioned whether the time to get involved was early, or after the dust has settled. No link or reference was included since my remark wasn't exactly flattering, but Pete's a big boy and here is what he wrote:
My strategy regarding Next Manager Market is simple, Lay the whoever is flavour of the week, before that's viable, you need a clear picture of who that is, and as of last night there were two at around 4/1 which was the wrong time to get stuck in. Alan Curbishley is now 1.86/1.91 which is a much more attractive lay price than it was when I posted last night.
He followed up with a post tooL
A Comment on my previous post from Internet God Cassini sadly sans link (take note, I could do with the hits…)Surely when there ‘is a clearer picture’ any advantage is gone? Isn’t the time to strike early on in these markets, and lay all day as Borisranting has been suggesting? Buy the rumour, sell the fact. Makes sense to me. Not that I am a fan of Next Manager markets myself, but if there’s a time to be involved it is surely early rather than late.

For backing? Then definitely, however when it comes to Next manager markets, I prefer to lay. When I made my last post Curbishley was around 4.5, when I replied to Cassini’s post her was about 1.9, He traded as low as 1.42 in the end before bouncing back to 1.65 as of writing.
I'm not sure I understand why it makes sense to get involved early for backing, yet not for laying, since both are bets, and you need to have an idea of the true probability which ever way you want to make your bet. If you don't know what the true price is, as I suggest is the case for most of us with these markets, any involvement in these markets is a gamble. Laying Curbishley at 1.86/1.91 or 1.42 or any number in between, is fine only if that price is value to lay at, but unless you are Alan Curbishley or close to someone at the club, you really have no idea. Why is Curbishley a value lay (or back) at 1.42? That was the lowest traded price, so anyone backing there would have been hoping for the momentum to continue and allow him to sell to a bigger fool, and anyone laying there was taking a gamble that the price wouldn't drop too much more. Admittedly, the sums traded were very small, but it seems to me a waste of time and ultimately money, to get involved in markets that others have significant inside information about, and we (or at least I) don't.


BigAl said...

You can probably knock about 7 units off the draws' profit.

What I mean by this is

a) take commission into account

b) not upping the price of selections by using the price which is available to lay.

Mark Iverson said...

Please keep the draws coming....I still have 8 points to make up ;-)