Monday, 6 February 2012

Runs - Winning And Losing

For the XX Draw Selections, it was a rare 100% winning weekend, with both selections finishing 0-0 (Wolfsburg v Moenchengladbach and Novara v Cagliari) which makes three perfect draws in a row following on from midweek's Bolton Wanderers v Arsenal 0-0. The Sochaux v Lille game was also scoreless, but apparently postponed games don't count as a 0-0 so I had to redact that selection from the records. When these selections had their poor run in December, I was expecting a flood of complaints, but to the credit of the subscribers, there wasn't a single moan. I did spell out in the prospectus that the nature of backing the draw means that long losing runs are inevitable, as other draw seekers Geoff, the Green Pullover and Griff can attest with losing runs of 15, 17 and 20 respectively, but after 95 selections this season, they are again showing a decent ROI of 8.3%. Even better is backing these selections as Unders with an ROI of 11.9%, and the longest losing run on these is a much more tolerable four. Not so good were the three 'Value Under' bonus selections, which went 0 for 3 and a plunge in the Friendly Tipster Table, although with a low number of selections, the ROI changes dramatically.

Still leading the table is Backing The Lay The Draw selection, where we had a winner in Schalke '04 v Mainz '05. Pete Nordsted's Drawmaster improved with Wigan Athletic v Everton, and the Green Pullover found two draws from five picks, while Geoff found two from four. No joy for Griff and his one selection, nor for the Random Draw selections.

For those not wanting draws, but who look for (usually) home wins, Mark J found two winners from five for a small loss, while Football Elite came up empty from three selections. The latest table is:

Dave, over at Betfair Football Trading, gave me a mention here, although be warned, it starts off rather crazily with
Whilst I don't agree with everything that Cassini says...
A Punter's Year had a good post today, good in that it was written after a poor run of results, something that happened to me last month, which I wrote about here. Read the Punter's Year post in full, because it is all-too-rare to find a blog post written when things are going wrong, but these words were illuminating:
Over the last few days, results have gone badly awry. There is nothing new in this; I've been through similar spells before and come out the other side smiling. Ultimately I'm only about £600 down since the start of the year. Not good but I've had much worse spells.

No, what has hit me hard have been the circumstances of many of the losing bets. Phil Taylor at odds of 1.05 - that's 20/1 ON - Fleetwood at odds of 3/1 ON, late goals, jockeys falling off their mounts on the flat, Chelsea at 3-0 up and drawing...all these things have cost me a lot of money.

The thing is, for the first time really, I've found myself not enjoying what I'm doing. I was unnecessarily and unfairly irritable with my son this afternoon. I've hated watching 'Super Sunday', found myself distracted most of the weekend, and generally have been pretty miserable. And you know something? I don't think it's worth it. In fact, I know it's not worth it.
It's noticeable that the bets listed all suggest someone trying to buy money. While I am well aware that 1.05, or 1 to 3 can be value, the risk:reward ratio is just so poor that unless I am confident that the price is value, my preference by far is to be on the lay side, and backing at these prices is a recipe for disaster. I know the author subscribes to a number of services, including several Horse Racing, Football and Darts services, but I doubt that any of those are tipping 1.05 shots. More of a concern though is the fact that these setbacks are affecting the writers mood. I'm not an expert on this, (yes, I know you are all surprised), but my thoughts are that the stakes are too high, plus the author knows deep down that the bets were poor value, and is taking his anger with himself out on his poor son! A loss is much easier to take if you know it was a value bet that happened to lose, rather than a misguided attempt to try to buy money at poor value. (I know - been there, done that). If gambling is a hobby, scale down the bet size until a loss doesn't mean anything, and be selective. Don't jump into markets trying to buy money. If someone is offering you 1.05, there's probably a good reason for it.

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