Tuesday, 18 June 2013

Miami Composed

With just one or two more games to go in the 2012-13 NBA season, there is one final play on the strategy of backing Miami Heat to cover the spread in the game following a straight up loss. Many of you will already be up on this strategy revealed a few days ago here, and in Game 6 tonight, the handicap is 6.5 (the largest spread of the series).

With Miami's average margin of victory in 12 such games since January 19.5, the 1.98 currently available on them looks to be great value. Miami have shown a lot of composure after losses, and returning home for a must-win game v San Antonio Spurs.

The Heat straight up are 1.36 tonight, but the better value is to back Miami to win the Championship at 1.87.         (Miami are still series favourites thanks to the 2-3-2 format in the NBA Finals).

If (when) Miami win tonight, they will be shorter than the implied 1.375 to win Game 7.

No comments: