Friday, 10 January 2014

Double Trouble

A rare venture into midweek action for Skeeve last night, although with Forest Green Rovers being held to a 1-1 draw by Hereford United, he may well be wishing he'd stuck to usual routine. I must admit that I am not familiar with why Skeeve usually skips midweek matches, but I have noticed the selections are usually weekend matches.

I hope I'm not giving any service secrets away when I say that this game was the first leg of a double, with the second leg being played on Saturday. I'm not a big fan of multiples as I have written before, and I am even more puzzled by the use of them when the selections are not playing simultaneously.

In this case, the double is already dead, but the option of backing the second selection remains open. Similarly, had the first leg won, backed as a single you would still have the option of placing an increased stake single bet on the second selection if that second bet is still value. Team news (more important in the lower echelons of league football) between Thursday and Saturday could always render the second leg bet poor value.

Here are some thoughts on betting in multiples from 'The Mathematician':
Many punters seek the thrill of a life changing bet that will produce huge gains of instant wealth for a small outlay. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit, turn a small stake into a large sum.
Professionals however rarely bet in multiples. Most professionals bet singles and steer away from the multiple bets. Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets with exotic names such as Yankee, Lucky 15, and Goliath. The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker's favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet.
Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favor of 15%. Taking two such selections however and betting them in a win double, the bookmakers profit margin rises to about 30% !
Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate.
It is a waste of time debating which type of multiple bet is 'best'. Unless your prediction skills are supernatural or you are incredibly lucky, then betting in singles is more often the best option.

1 comment:

Brulati said...

Hello Cassini

How are you? Great to read your blog. I changed the link of my blog. Would be great if you can make an update on your blog roll: