Friday, 24 January 2014

To Climb A Tree

Taking time out from developing yet more profitable strategies - "it really isn't that tough" - Emp said...

Emp asks why it is fair for someone of higher intelligence to use that advantage while betting, but gaining an advantage from court-siding isn’t.?
To clarify, this wasn't what I was asking. I was challenging the assumption that creating a sports-betting model by hiring 15 quants and throwing 15 seasons worth of data through custom-made simulations (modus operandi of most big whales) is the same thing as intelligence.
No matter how intelligent an average person is, they can't do this, it's just like paying 'analysts' a matter of resource constraint.
To clarify, I was attempting to paraphrase Emp's eight itemised comments into something manageable, and I got close. Intelligence comes in different forms of course, and it was Einstein who said:
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
There was a reason I placed the word 'analysts' in quotes. Someone pressing a button to reflect what just happened is not an analyst by any definition of the word.

Nick commented:
Ex-Betfair employees engaging in this seems to me like someone leaving the vice squad to become a pimp.
The sharks lost trust with Betfair years ago but once the mainstream cotton on it could spell big problems for them.
They need to work out a solution to this else the GC will step in and the only in-play betting will be top flight football.
Frog2 on the Betfair Forum suggested:
This issue needs to be urgently addressed. Market failure that leads to a small group of people draining others at double digit margins is not good for Betfair or other punters.
A few more details emerged at the court hearing in Melbourne yesterday, notably that Sporting Data employ six people to travel to tennis tournaments around the world, and that Mr Dobson had previously been kicked out of a tournament in New Zealand:
THE first person charged with Victoria's "courtsiding" offence is one of six people who travel to tennis tournaments the world over to send live score updates to a British betting agency, a court has heard.
UK man Daniel Thomas Dobson, 22, was arrested after an Australian Open match last week following intelligence received by Tennis Australia and passed on to police.
He's accused of using a device hidden in his shorts to send live point details from the match to betting agency Sporting Data Limited.
His lawyer, David Galbally QC, told the Melbourne Magistrates Court on today Mr Dobson was seeking to have the charges dropped. But prosecutors rejected Mr Galbally's submission and will push ahead.
Prosecutor Luke Excell said Mr Dobson was allegedly one of six people who travel the world to send live results of points won at tennis tournaments directly to the betting agency.
"He's previously been asked to leave a tournament in New Zealand," Mr Excell told court.
Mr Dobson has been charged with one count of engaging in conduct that would corrupt a betting outcome.
He allegedly had a device built into his shorts and linked to his mobile phone which allowed him to wirelessly relay the results as they happened.
Mr Dobson sent results before the agency could get them through the official channels and that had the ability to affect betting odds, a police prosecutor told a hearing last week.
But Mr Dobson's lawyers claim their client was simply collecting data for the betting agency.
Dobson was bailed to live in a Melbourne hotel following his arrest on January 16, but Mr Galbally said his client wishes to return to England until a March court date.
Mr Galbally said Mr Dobson planned to live with his father, Detective Inspector Tim Dobson of the Metropolitan Police, upon his return to England.
The court could therefore have confidence he would return to face the charge, Mr Galbally said.
The Office of Public Prosecutions proposed Mr Dobson post a bail surety of $100,000 to $500,000, a figure which Mr Galbally said amounted to "no bail at all".
Mr Galbally said the figure was excessive given police initially offered Mr Dobson a diversion for his alleged offending.
Diversion allows first-time offenders to acknowledge responsibility and be released without conviction.
Magistrate Gerard Lethbridge said he intends to allow Mr Dobson to return home on a surety of $10,000.
The hearing was temporarily stood down while the arrangements for the surety are organised.
Bongo had a few thoughts on the subject too:
Remarkable - almost 1/5th of bets matched on the Becker game were with a company breaking the rules of the tournament they were betting on. And they have potentially 6 people travelling the world, buying tickets for events, clicking YES I agree the terms at point of purchase, and then breaking those rules.
I suspect they're doing it for profit. Not benevolence. When a book subsequently goes to 100% i suspect that is those not rule-breaking who are coming in a second or two later.
Three directors with inside information about how Betfair works, one of whom may have been architect of the API.
I suspect they are mates with current Betfair directors but can't be sure. I suspect current Betfair directors know about them , and their rule breaking but rather than impose a sanction, they take their custom. But can't be sure of it. I suspect the Betfair disclaimer hasn't been updated to include 'private data feeds' along with the stuff about 'broadcasts' because they can't be bothered or because they don't want people to catch on that 1/5th of bets are with people who are cheating the event organisers rules.
Betfair needs new customers, and so do those on General Betting who make a profit here. First time betters will be naive, will take a few goes to get used to the buttons on this site, and won't be the coding and maths clever people. Does Betfair want them to see a bet they like at 3.4 - 3.6, they go to back 3.4 and immediately it's either unmatched at 3.3 or matched at 3.4 but the odds have changed to 3.5 depending on whether the first serve is in or out, which the guy sees on his TV half a second later.
What will keep a customer imv is if he gets matched at the price he likes and half the time or almost the outcome of the first point after the bet. That's going to excite and keep the newcomer.
What I would like to see:
Betfair sanction accounts connected to people breaking tournament ticketing rules - closure is appropriate.
Also hand over details of those accounts to HMRC so they can compare them to Sporting Data's directors' tax returns. The individuals are surely carrying out a trade so profits should be subject to income tax.


Emp said...

I am not sure why you need to be so rude and acerbic to people who disagree with you.

For someone who claims to have won as much betting as you do, it seems remarkable that you are so doubtful of the possibility of winning anything, and so convinced of the efficiency of almost all prices, that one wonders why you even do this?

For the record, yes, I have profitable strategies, as my football systems which were on top of your table with a good sample size (and which happen to be my lowest priority) demonstrate. I wonder why you find it difficult to comprehend that someone who disagrees with you can be intelligent and successful.

Flash said...

Well said Emp.

Anonymous said...

keep up the good work, great read.