Sunday, 12 January 2014

A Bettor Class Of Subscriber

Omar Chaudhuri of the 5 Added Minutes blog is conducting a survey to determine which Premier League clubs are the most, and the least, popular. 

While I had no trouble selecting my top team of course, had this survey been completed last season my list would be quite a lot different. The problem with answering this season is that I am influenced by the presence of my own team, and thus teams that are survival rivals are harshly treated. For instance I have for a long time had a soft spot for Norwich City, but this season not so much. I really would like them to go down and fill one of those drop-zone spots. Other relegation contenders also suffer, with Manchester United ending up almost in mid-table as a result. Do I really prefer corporate United to friendly Fulham? No, but this season I have to make an exception. Anyway, it's an interesting exercise and if you have a few spare minutes why not try it? If enough people take part, the results might be quite interesting.

In my last post, I wrote about Skeeve and his staggered double bet spanning Thursday night and Saturday. As expected, the second leg made another appearance, and since the game is now in the books I can safely reveal that it was Southport to beat Hyde United who were in a new double along with Bromley (v Eastbourne Borough). With the latter game postponed due to a waterlogged pitch, the bet became a single on Southport, but unfortunately for Skeeve and followers, Hyde picked up just their fourth point of the season, and came within 12 minutes of their first win. Something of a Jekyll and - oh, never mind.

Anyway, Skeeve's update was mildly amusing. Rather than 'hide', in anticipation of of a deluge of abusive emails, Skeeve pre-emptively noted that he was well aware of the results etc, and that hate mail really doesn't change anything, and then came this paragraph:
There we go - the first hate-mail has just hit my inbox. "Really starting to lose my patience"; "getting very ridiculous"; "I am scared every Friday"; "you are by far the most inconsistent tipster"; "don't know what to say, as nothing will help"... So the usual stuff. I'm not sure if you realise it, but e-mails like that don't help. Not in theory, not in practice. All they do is make the guy you're paying so that he could focus on a small market he now knows more about than the betting industry feel even worse after a bad day at the office. That and yes, you get to release some of the frustration you feel. Glad to be of service. But when you're working as hard as I do all week just to see all the invested points gone (sometimes a team will have an off day, sometimes they'll concede a silly goal and sometimes it's woodwork instead of a goal that turns a +5 point profit into a -4 point loss), it can't possibly feel good. You feel that lack of fairness, the near-philosophical stupidity of a hard week's work producing nothing but financial loss, which is obviously the exact opposite of what a man should get after working that hard for the whole week. It's a strange job and I think I've adapted well to most bizarre aspects of it, but sending an angry e-mail after a losing day is something I will never understand. Yes, a third of the betting bank is temporarily gone. Also, it's January 11, not May 11.
I probably shouldn't say that I found it mildly amusing, because for Skeeve and his subscribers, it certainly isn't, but what I do find strange is why anyone feels the need to vent in this way. I lost money myself on these selections this week, but I understand that not all weeks will be winning weeks, and my stake size was such that I will still have a house after any loss. Football betting, however specialised, is not that easy, and it is totally unrealistic to expect that anyone or any service can make profits each and every week. For crying out loud, Skeeve is one of the best out there, and the only service (other than yours truly) that is showing a profit on the season in the FTL. If you don't feel he has an edge, then stop following his selections, keep your money in your wallet next season and develop your own edge on your own time.

As of right now, Skeeve's Official results have him up 6.44 points on level stakes from 51 bets (an ROI of 12.63%, which is second best in the FTL). His FTL modified selections (i.e. level stakes, no doubles, and handicap bets are lays of the opponent) are up 8.15 points from 66 bets (ROI 12,35%).  Those results are not too shabby at all, and you only have to look at last week's FTL table to see how difficult it is to make a profit from football betting.

I can honestly say that in the three seasons I have been running my part-time XX Draws (and more) service, I have not had one abusive email, and trust me, there have been some bad days. Note 'days' though, not 'seasons'. When you're looking for draws, it's a statistical certainty that there will be long losing runs, but I do make that clear in my prospectus which may well put off all but the more savvy investors. That's probably a good thing.

Skeeve and Football Elite (Matt has also been on the receiving end of abuse this season) may attract more of a 'get-rich-quick' crowd, who want wins every week and don't fully understand the nature of betting or have the right disposition for it. I don't know about Peter Nordsted's Premier Betting Account members, but with the frankly awful results they have had this season to date, it would be interesting to know how they have reacted. Ian Erskine has written on this topic many times too.

Do Skeeve and Matt receive a torrent of praise after a good week? I think I know the answer. As I have written before, if you have an edge, or are following someone you believe has an edge, then:
To get worked up over individual bets, is as unproductive as a casino manager worrying over the outcomes of individual pulls of the slot machines.
I might also mention in this post that I have actually been on the receiving end of a couple of very generous bonus gifts (strangely both of an alcoholic nature) from Scott and Steve of Daily25, so there are some good people out there. One point that Steve raises in his latest post is this:
For all the shit I give Skeeve and FB Elite, they are fair in their recorded odds, which makes me trust their services a lot more then these others.
That's certainly a good point. With anyone in the FTL being measured against Pinnacle's prices, it is often the case that Skeeve's 'Official' recorded price is bettered in the FTL Official (Pinnacle) price.

And now for something completely different - Quiz time.
Only one semi professional club has ever won a Football League championship.
Name them. Winner receives XX Draws (and more) through the end of this season.


MrTurnz said...

Nelson F.C?
They won the Football League Third Division North in 1923

Mark said...

Hi, Is the answer to the quiz Bath City ?



Cassini said...

Mark - you are correct. Congratulations! Please send me your email if you wish to receive the XX Draws And More emails.

For the 1921–22 season they moved up to Southern League, English section. Here they remained until the Second World War when they were by chance accepted to join the temporary Division Two Northern Division competing with the likes of Liverpool, Manchester United and Everton, finishing the eventual champions, thereby becoming the only semi-professional side ever to win a Football League trophy.

Mark said...

Thanks Cassini ! I have e-mailed you so you should have my e-mail address that you can use.

Cheers !

Anonymous said...

Premier Betting only have 2 clients .

Jake said...

how do I follow Skeeve please

Anonymous said...

A serious point is what makes people follow one tipster over another . There are some great tipsters with solid results who have hardly any clients and some really poor ones that have loads . The big craze is accas so the football data analysts are not getting a look in.

Re Southport v Hyde I am interested in the thought process that there was expectation that Southport would win > if we toss a coin 1000000000000000 we may get 10 heads in a row and Hyde with only 3 draws this season surely would be considered to get a few more points this season ????