Wednesday 6 January 2010

Slots Of Money

A few weeks ago, I was whining about the losing runs one comes across, even when betting with value, and a passage in my Xmas reading resonated with me. The book was "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis, a very interesting book even if your knowledge of baseball is limited, and the lines that made a lot of sense to me were these, (I paraphrase):

If one believes that it is simply a matter of figuring out the odds, and exploiting the laws of probability, and that investing follows strikingly predictable patterns, then there is no point in being anything but calm. To get worked up over individual bets, is as unproductive as a casino manager worrying over the outcomes of individual pulls of the slot machines.
Very true words and something to keep in mind next time a losing run comes to visit, as it will.


Jay said...

Hey Cassini,

That's so true, everybody should have that written on a bit of paper above there pc!


Anonymous said...

I suppose the real problem with losing runs, despite the fact that you should stick to your guns and have confidence in your betting, is that niggling doubt in the back of your mind that this is the moment when your edge goes...(and the edge will go eventually)