Saturday, 30 January 2010

Hammers And Poppies

The Elo ratings are in form right now, and confident they will continue that way, in this weekend’s English Premier League, the best value bet is West Ham at 2.17 to beat Blackburn Rovers. I expect them to win by 1 goal and anything over 2.0 is good value for these selections. An additional bonus is that West Ham currently have (by my ratings) the best form in the Premier League.

Favoured by 3 goals are Liverpool and the price of 1.45 is a reflection of their wobbly form right now. With this win expectancy, 1.45 is value.

Teams favoured by 2 goals this weekend are Chelsea, a short 1.31 at Burnley, and Manchester City a not much better 1.32 at home to Portsmouth.

Everton should be one goal stronger than Wigan, but they are away and 2.38 is not generous.

The other games are predicted to be draws, although form favours Birmingham City and Hull City against Tottenham and Wolves respectively. Hull at 2.46 and a lay of Tottenham at 2.48 are my plays here. Draws at Arsenal and Fulham seem value at 3.4 each. A lay of Sunderland at 2.2 for Monday’s game.

Looking outside the Premier League, the stand-out value bet based on the numbers is Kettering Town, 2.4 at home to Crawley Town. Kettering may be missing their player-manager and captain, but for those like me who believe the market often overreacts to team news, 2.4 is a good price.

Other selections are Cardiff City (1.78) v Doncaster Rovers, Preston North End (2.54) v Ipswich Town, Reading (2.05) v Barnsley, Bristol Rovers (1.77), Carlisle United (2.04) v Leyton Orient, Leeds United (1.71) v Colchester United, Aldershot (1.75) v Grimsby, Morecambe (2.34) v Chesterfield, Port Vale (2.02) v Hereford, Torquay United (2.38) v Bradford City, Luton Town (1.47) v Ebbsfleet United, Aberdeen (2.16) v Motherwell, Dundee United (2.42) at Kilmarnock, Hibernian (1.7) v St Mirren, Inverness Caledonian Thistle (2.06) v Partick Thistle, Alloa Athletic (1.63) v Arbroath, Fofar (1.55) v Elgin City, Livingston (1.43) v Queens Park.


peter said...

well done on mid week ratings! a big reason the lower leagues elo dont work is proberly linked to the fact that % scoring chances are not converted to % chances created in the higher leagues!

Ben said...


just came across the blog. Is it possible to get hold of this spreadsheet with the ratings system?

or is it more based on your personal judgement?