Tuesday, 12 January 2010

City Slick

Update to previous post: I made a typo - City were of course only 1.49, not 1.79, to win. I say 'only' but when my system predicts a 2 goal win, it is spot on 31% of the time (33% if I drop League Two!)

So the Any Unquoted was a nice bonus, though I would have preferred the 3-1 final scoreline. With the Any Unquoted, you're essentially covered for the 2 goals or more scenario, with just the 3-0 to cover.

Over 2.5 goals is probably worth backing in these games. To be honest, I've just been recording the strike rate rather than the prices for these games, but since the strike rate is looking good, I shall add another page to my spreadsheet and track the prices.

I'm also noticing that some teams are more predictable than others. For example in the Premier League over the last 10 matches, the predicted margin for Aston Villa games has been correct 5 times, and within 1 goal three times. At the other extreme, Chelsea have been within 1 goal once, and that's it.

1 comment:

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