Saturday, 30 January 2010

Pride Comes Before

Not to blow my own trumpet too much, just a small toot, but the Elo predictions don't come any better than my post on Wednesday. 4 out of 4 with every margin exactly right.

If only every match day was as accurate.

Matt from Football Elite also picked Blackburn Rovers on Wednesday. It's interesting to me that Matt doesn't select teams that are less than evens. I have written before about the fact that value can exist at any price, so it is puzzling to me that Matt (and indeed others) don't like to back at odds-on.

I can understand that recreational punters might not want to risk more money on a bet than they stand to win, but I think that punters with a more 'professional' approach would be quite happy to bet at 1.7 if that price is value.

I say 1.7 because that was Everton's price on Wednesday evening, which, for a team with the two goal supremacy I predicted, was a standout price.

Typically my 3 and 4 goal home selections are very short priced - they are your Manchester United v Hull City types of games, and for these I favour the Correct Score market, but then there are the 2 goal supremacy teams who typically are priced in the 1.4 to 1.6 range that offer value at anything much over that.

For the one goal supremacy home teams, the price is typically 1.6 to 1.8 and so anything at evens or above is good value.

As part of the evolution process of my spreadsheet, I am dropping the Conference Regional Leagues. For whatever reason, the results of predictions at this level are significantly less accurate than those higher up the pyramid, and with the liquidity being so poor on these games anyway, it just isn't worth the extra time and effort.

The Conference National isn't much better, but I shall persevere here for a while longer, even if no money is invested for the moment.

Weekend selections in the morning, but beware that I may have used up several weeks of luck on Wednesday! If you believe in that sort of thing of course.


Kokoooooooo said...

Thank you Cassini well said

Anonymous said...

Tipsters might not select odds-on selections because 'any mug can find an odds-on winner'.

Perhaps they don't select them because of the backlash that would occur if they hit a loser just because it was odds-on.

Of course, I'm only speculating.