Tuesday, 26 August 2014

Threat Of The Big One

Still eleven entries yet to wet their feet, but the table is starting to take shape with no less than 12 entries in profit right now, and all separated by less than 5 points. A great improvement on last weeks total of two in profit. Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster now leads the way, followed by Draw Picks. Peter found four winners from seven selections, while Draw Picks found five from nine. The XX Draws found a mere three from ten for a meagre profit, but eight unders moved the XX Unders into profit.

I received an email from one entrant, I'll keep it anonymous as it came by email rather than a comment, with the subject FTL Accumulators:
A quick thought and concern regarding the above.

By allowing these it is possible for somebody to hit a "big one" and then sit back all season just picking a few singles each week.

It goes completely against the discipline that I have maintained for many years now by not getting involved in lining the bookmakers bottom line by backing accumulators and I feel that there is no place for it in such a prestigious league such as the FTL.

Just my thoughts of course but I remain concerned...............
I do understand the concern, and share the writer's opinion on accumulators myself. As I wrote last season when only one odds-on favourite out of 19 in the top four English leagues failed to win:
The mathematical fact is that on 110% over-round markets, the over-round on an eight-fold accumulator grows to 214.4%. [Fixed Odds Sports Betting by Joseph Buchdahl]
Most people in the FTL understand this, or should do, and the accumulators that have been submitted have been few and far between, and gentle in nature. The biggest was a five-fold that was all odds-on home teams that, had it hit, wouldn't have been that much bigger (20.54) a payout than Leicester City were to win at Chelsea (17.7) on Saturday.  


Marty said...

Doesn't this overround argument miss the point that if you have an edge, then this increases by more than the overround, so betting multiples can be a very effective way to generate EV.

skeeve said...

Hi Cassini,

What do you think about Steve's strategy for the Friendly Tipster League (http://www.daily25.com/joining-friendly-tipster-league/)? If his strategy isn't against the rules, can the rest of us use other tipsters/systems' selections as well? :)


Stewboss said...

I was thinking the same thing as Skeeve. We could get mugged by our own subscribers! Stewboss