Friday, 21 October 2016

Aston Martin

From Dewsbury, via Twitter, came this message:

Flattery will get you anywhere. As my brilliant blog post made clear, Big Pairs' blog was indeed previously listed, but for some strange reason, the author decided to delete it - not for the first time he has taken this action it should be noted.

Trader247's blog is another Automated Trading blog, detailing the story of Oscar, (Original SCalping Algorithm Robot). No silly goals, no talk of retiring in three short years, just mostly small profits and the occasional set back caused by an error in the bot which sounds painful, and probably is. The blog has been added to the exclusive list on my blog roll.

Trader247 writes:

I started this blog for myself to help keep track of progress and keep motivated. But also there’s not many automated trading blogs out there that are realistic or that aren’t trying to flog betting / tipping / data services, so I hope this provides something a little different.
Whether the blog is about automated trading or manual trading, it certainly behoves the reader to question why the blog exists.

James had a recent post where he touched on this, using the term 'vendor blog' to describe a blog written with the aim of selling a product, this example being Peter Webb of Bet Angel fame.

Of course the approach has to be subtle if it is to be effective, but sharp minds such as James' are there to help. His latest post contains this gem:

Another crossover I notice from poker is that many people like to boast about their winnings and never talk about their losses. Rarely do you hear people talking about 50 consecutive losing trades any more than a poker player talks about losing runs. No, all you hear about is the winning. You don't sell product if you list its failures. Negative advertising doesn't work in this game.
What's misleading is that it's not that difficult to get a long streak of winners. The problem is that all of a sudden the laws of probability catch up with you and you lose all your profits and probably more. If you can call an unbiased coin toss correctly 14 times in a row, you should probably be performing in Las Vegas.

Anyway, James' post about Peter's "Luck And Skill In Trading" post appears to have touched a nerve, as the latter has been updated to include this:

[EDIT : In case you have been misled on the particular comment above, read my entire blog post. Here, I am writing about talking to people about what I am doing while trading at the same time, so that obviously slows you down. Despite this, I still got 14 out of 14 trades right. If I trade without doing this then I obviously do even better. Traders in financial markets don’t have to explain what they are doing to an audience real time, they just trade and that’s what I prefer to do on busy days. Again, read this entire post if you want to see everything in its true context]
So if I'm reading this right, trading alone with the blinds drawn and noise-cancelling headphones on, Peter would have been able to get 15 trades right out of 14, which would certainly be impressive.

Peter later wrote, in the style of P G Wodehouse or perhaps Enid Blyton:

On this particular day, it was clearly the right call. I had an absolutely cracking day. It was great to pop in to speak to the delegates, to show them the results as they unfolded.
No doubt they celebrated long into the night with bags of lettuce and lashings of ginger beer. 

Peter might also look up what the word 'delegate' means! 

Delegates in Peter's post apparently means people like Andy who have paid a few hundred pounds to attend.

In 2013, Andy was 21 and forked out £400. I won't reproduce his review in full, but it's worth a read and unintentionally rather amusing in a black humour kind of way - Some highlights:
My name is Andy, and I’m here to write a review on the forthcoming Peter Webb Trading Masterclass course, which is happening on the 24th June, 2013.
I will be updating my progress with deadly accuracy, which will mean posting my profit and loss no matter how shameful or fantastic it may be.
OK… so a little about me.
I opened my Betfair account on my 20th birthday last year and used it for a little matched betting and dabbling.
However I discovered the magic of trading around December time. I immediately handed my notice in and decided this was the big opportunity I was after!
Oh dear, this is why "trading is so easy" blogs are dangerous, the perfect example:
BUT… IT TURNS OUT YOU CAN’T LEARN TRADING OVERNIGHT!

I had a bit of a crash in February, so until about April I got by on arbitrage and a portfolio of betting systems which has allowed me to rebuild my trading bank and keep the bills at bay, but…
It’s a ticking time bomb because I arb so much my bookmaker accounts are slowly being closed down.
And when I lose those, I lose most of my income and it’s trouble time!
Andy actually has nothing but good words to say about Peter and his class, but three months later, Andy was asked:
I know you went to the training course a while ago. Wanted to know how things have been going for you since then. Have you started to make any profits? Its been a few months since you attended so was curious if you are recouping the cost of your course.
Now remembering that the course cost £600 (including £200 travel), here's Andy's reply:
I’m definitely not anywhere near recouping the cost of the course, but then again I felt like that was an investment.
This course is definitely not the magic pill that suddenly allows you to trade.
Does anyone really think that any course is really going to arm you with anything of real value? Sure you'll learn the basics of trading, and how to use the software, but if any trader has even the smallest edge in something like horse racing, they are going to do everything they can to protect it. 

James says an edge shared is an edge halved, or something like that, and it is certainly not going to be given away for £400 to anyone who asks. The vendor's goal is to sell software, something that is aided by the idea that profitable trading is easy. No one is selling a valuable edge.   

So Andy was still out of pocket, not to mention that he no longer had his job! 

But all is well because a couple of years later, and Andy had moved on to "Profit Maximiser" which is "essentially a system that takes advantage of the free bet offers bookies throw our way to try and lure us into becoming new customers".

Andy writes:

Since I switched the emphasis to PM, I cleared my debts, bought myself an Aston Martin, have the money to holiday whenever and wherever I feel like and I have a number of entrepreneurial friends who I’m in talks with investing as a silent partner in their start-ups. All these things are my personal symbols of success, so I would say I got to the end goal, but in a manner that I completely didn’t expect. What mattered was setting the goals in the first place.
Oh my! Aston Martin! A debt free life! Unlimited holidays! The clich├ęs! 

In less than two years! 

My boss will not be happy when I hand in my notice next week - I just need to run it by boss at home first, but should be no problem. After all, what can possibly go wrong?

1 comment:

James said...

Didn't The Tangled Webb have a personal website about probability? Now deleted, I believe. And with good reason, as he confuses many forms of cognitive bias with his self-alleged prowess as a trader.

Now onto young Andrew. I should imagine he is in desperate need of cash since his costly (but highly effective) sex change. I am pretty sure that his "guest review" is penned by 'Lucy Collins', who has a Twitter account too.

https://twitter.com/LucyLayBack

Although, with a name like LucyLayBack I can only assume 'she' earned 'his' Aston Martin through a call girl service rather than by trading.

His/Her website is a supreme case of "If you can't beat 'em join 'em", littered as it is with so many affiliate links.

Obviously, he/she is coining it because after her sex change a face lift was paid for too as the bio on the website looks nothing like the visage on Twitter.

http://www.laybackandgetrich.com/about-me/

I guess if people who have read my recent article on reading trading websites still get taken in by such an amateurish set up then they deserve to be mugged.