With the onset of the NBA season I’m looking to get involved in the Blunders but despite reading the blog a few times I can’t seem to get a feel for just how heavily favoured the favs need to be to see if a game qualifies. You couldn’t oblige could you?The criteria I personally use is for 'heavily favoured' is the -9.5 line, although the -11.5+ line is the 'official' line.
This (-9.5+) generates a good number of bets each season, an average of 209 over the past five years, but more in the last couple of years as parity in the league has declined.
In the last two seasons, the Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers have each been heavily favoured more than 50 times.
The five year record for this system at the -9.5+ level is:
Without giving everything away, one of the above mentioned teams has a coach whose coaching philosophy is a little different to others, and Overs has been the preferred play for the past ten seasons when they are big favourites.
I like to keep my basic systems simple, but if you are betting the farm on these, and I really hope you aren't, tracking exceptions to the rule can add significantly to the bottom line.
In the five years detailed above, excluding the outlier team, would have increased the P/L to 60.14 points, and the ROI to 6.5%.
The -11.5+ line version is more selective of course, (about half as many bets as the -9.5 line) but has a higher ROI:
There are three games tonight, but no selections. Good luck if playing this system this season. I'll track progress from time to time through the season.