Some bonus top analysis from Fizzer on the upcoming Los Angeles @ Washington Nationals game tonight, and some thoughts on the Texas Rangers close-game phenomenon:
Interesting pick for UMPO followers tonight. Washington Nats (SP: Max Scherzer) 2.33 (was 2.46 earlier).
I know Washington are up against my favourite pitcher Clayton Kershaw and their catcher Wilson Ramos is out, but 2.33!!
In his two years at Washington, Scherzer has only started as a Home Dog once (and that was at a price of 1.99). In his career he has only been the home dog 4 times, twice at the Tigers starting at 2.05 and 2.15 and you have to go back to his early days at Arizona in 2009 for the other one, starting at 2.30 (which Arizona won).
Whatever the result, I'd much rather be on Scherzer and the Nats at home at 2.33 or higher than on the Dodgers away at 1.69. Got to feel the market is over reacting to the Nats injury news and that the Dodgers are healthy and perceived to have finished the season well (In reality both teams went 6-4 in their last 10 games. Perception can be a dangerous thing).
As for Texas, I would have been disappointed if you hadn't picked out the September only win profit! All I would say on that is that they had to continue their unbelievable 1-run match result record - going 6-3 in September to make it 36-11 for the year, to achieve their 0.35 units profit. Actual Odds on Texas were much shorter, a 1.72 average versus 1.995 up to the end of August, the market believing they were good in the clutch or never gave in etc. made them no value.
As a reminder, fivethirtyeight.com commented at the end of August "The lesson here is that a team’s record in one-run games tends to regress to the mean. The Rangers are more than 90 percent likely to make the playoffs, but they won’t be able to count on this kind of luck in tight contests when they get there."For the record, I am on the Nationals at 2.38.