Saturday, 8 October 2016

Scherzer's Ruff Outing

My sub-editor was really hoping to title this post "Scherzer's Schnauzer Is A Hot Dog" but alas, it will have to wait. 

I ended the previous post with "For the record, I am on the Nationals at 2.38" but as their price drifted, I doubled up on my usual stake at 2.52.

Unfortunately the Los Angeles Dodgers went ahead in the first inning, and despite being pulled back from 4-0 to 4-3, they held on to win. However, the Overs came in, so all was not lost.

It was a busy day for the UMPO System yesterday, although only three of the four matches qualified for a bet. 

The Toronto Blue Jays took a 2-0 series lead over the Texas Rangers winning 5-3 (a Push on the Totals) in the first game,  followed by the No Bet game between the Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox which was a comfortable 6-0 for the Indians, who also now have a 2-0 series lead.

In the final match of the day, the Chicago Cubs upset the UMPO System beating the San Francisco Giants in a low-scoring 1-0 game. I need hardly add that this was a win for the Unders.
Martin wasn't happy with my research of his College Football System:
While I understood what Martin was looking for, the problem is that I don't know of any site that keeps historical money-line prices on College Football, or at least in a format that is easy and quick to access. Everything is based on the spread, so I had to improvise. Martin Tweeted again:
The Sloan Sports Conference article was mildly interesting, but boiled down to a system backing teams favoured by 20 to 25 points on the money-line.

The article must be a few years old, because the results included were for the 2006 to 2011 seasons:
Some of you may have noticed that those million dollar totals in the Losses column are wrong. 

Anyway, when the System 'inventor' was asked where he had got his data, the reply was:
"He told me he spent a semester going through the Covers website, manually inputting the 1,591 games that had a spread between 10 and 25, as well as their money-line price".
Unfortunately I don't have a semester to spare, but selections in this range historically win 94.7% of the time so you'd need 1.06 to make a profit, and that's excluding commission. As the article says:
Everyone reading this column presumably knows that you aren’t going to get rich betting heavy money-line favorites. For one thing, unless you already have a substantial bankroll, the price of entry for a decent payoff is very high. For another, no amateur has the willpower to make big dollar wagers that yield more consistent, yet smaller, returns.
As for the Top Performing Systems in the screenshot above, the first was Hot OVERs: 
The college football season kicks off in August that means hot weather. Pair the rising temperatures with non-conference games and you got a perfect recipe for taking the over.
This Pro System is up 73.7 units and has only one losing season in the last 11 years.
Current Pick: UTEP vs. New Mexico State, OVER 61.5 Result 38-22 LOST
Not only do hot non-conference games lend themselves to higher scoring (the heat wears down the defenses and the lack of familiarity increases the potential for big plays) but this game is a great OVER bet because of New Mexico State. The Aggies are one of the ten best Over programs in college football.
I don't mean to spoil anyone's excitement at these revelations, but it shouldn't surprise anyone that August is hot, or that opening games in a sport where a large percentage of the previous season's team are no longer eligible, will bring surprises. And just what the writer means by "one of the ten best Over programs in college football" or who he is trying to impress with this nonsense, is anyone's guess. 

The second system was Small Visiting Dogs:
The public loves betting favorites, especially on small money-lines. This system goes against the grain and takes advantage of the casual gamblers tendencies.
If you took small visiting dogs on the money-line you would be up 79.0 units in the last decade.
Current Pick: UCLA +2 at Texas A&M Result 24-31 LOST
Three points is the standard for home field advantage in football. The Bruins being 2-point underdogs on the road suggests that UCLA is actually a better team than A&M. Value taking UCLA on the money-line to win. 
Despite the loss on the above pick, this System has some merit; actually it has a lot of merit.
The table above is the collated results for all road dogs by from 1 to 5 points from the 2006 season on. 

Again using Pinnacle's 1.952, it has just one losing season, and that by a tiny 1.11 points. 

In addition, if you look at each line individually, only the 2.0 line shows a loss, and that is by just 2.35 points after 100 matches. 

Likely qualifiers today for this system:

Army, Vanderbilt, Idaho, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Hawaii, Colorado, Florida International and Syracuse. 

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