Wednesday, 20 June 2018

Championship Draw

I wasn't sure which league to look at next regarding the Draw, but decided on the Championship before seeing this request from John:

Obviously there is no Big 6 factor in a league with promotion positions, but it seems to me that these matches have in many ways replaced the traditional 'big' games for clubs which were (usually) local derbies. 

The Championship is also a league where 25% of the teams are replaced each season, which results in less predictability.

So how do the EPL strategies for backing the Draw hold up in the English Championship? 

Going into this exercise, my thoughts were that mainly because of the turnover of clubs, the 'differences' would generally be lower. 

In the Premier League only 30% of the matches are between teams with win probabilities within 40% of each other, i.e could be considered close contests.

Contrast this with the Championship where the number of such matches is 49%. 

While closer matches means more draws, it doesn't necessarily mean greater profits, or lesser losses.

To the numbers, and backing the Draw blindly in the Championship over the past six seasons (3312 matches) would have cost you 45.12 points, an ROI of -1.36% which is a better return, though still negative, than that in the Premier League.

For games where the difference is 25% or less, the profit is 23.14 points, ROI 2.3%, which is a lot lower than the same parameter produces in the Premier League. The raw difference is a little more interesting, especially where the home team is favoured, but not by much. Where the win probabilities are the same or the home team is favoured by up to 0.25, the profit is 99.68 points, a 6.9% ROI. (For the EPL, the ROI here is 9.0%). 

Backing the Draw when the Home team has an implied probability greater then 0.5 (2.0) would have lost you 25.50 points, while backing the Draw when the implied probability is greater than 0.27 would have lost you 106.81 points. As with the EPL, lots of easy ways to shed the losers. 

So in place of the inapplicable Big 6 / Little 14 matches, I'm sure some of you are wondering how derbies play out. 
Next up: France

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