Saturday, 30 June 2018

League Two Draw

Readers will know where the value lies for a blind strategy in League Two, and it isn't in backing the Draw. 

Not quite as bad as blindly backing the Home win, which has a -5% ROI, but pretty awful.

Two matches lost from the early weeks of the 2012-13 season with no prices, but still a decent sample of 3,310 matches. As with League One, there are not many games where the Draw price is 5.0 or higher, but unlike League One, the usual loss on these matches is present. 
When the win difference is up to 25%, backing the Draw is pretty much a wash.

The best Draw backing strategy in this league is to back it when the 'true' implied probability is greater than 0.29. 'True' in this case means that the over-round is removed and the Win, Draw, Loss probabilities equal 1. Because the over-round in this league varies a little more than in the top leagues, from 101.9% to 107.3%, the 'true' Draw price of ~3.44 doesn't correlate exactly to a Pinnacle Draw price. I should point out that the 107% over-rounds were all back in 2013, and the worst (from our point of view) over-round recently is 104.6% in 2018.

So if you do your sums, and back the Draw when it's 'truly' a .29 or greater chance, there were 49.18 points to be made from 501 bets, an ROI of 9.8%. There's also appears to be an edge backing the Draw when the Away team has a 'true' probability between 0.5 and .67, 23.26 points from a small 98 bets, a 23.7% ROI. 

Next up: Spain

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