Saturday, 2 June 2018

MLB - May, Lines and Bones

Only a small profit last month for hotties, but the streak of profitably for the opening two months of the season continued stretching back to 2014.

I mentioned in April that in the early part of the season:
13 of the Wins have been by one run, which explains why the Run Line P/L is currently negative, and 31 games (67.4%) have been Unders.
The final total for one-run wins by a shorty in April ended up being 18 (from 67 selections) and as a result, the profit / loss differential between Money Line (ML) and Run Line (RL) was the highest ever for a single month, with the RL trailing the ML by 21.9 points beating another April's (2012) difference of 13.27 points by some margin.

The total one-run wins in May was a more typical 7 (from 61 selections), and five of those were in the first eight days of May. Trilla B's research apparently suggested the Run Line was more profitable, but I'm not seeing this. 

Since 2012, when the shorties strategy became favourable, the ML has beaten the RL five seasons out of six, and including this season has a record of 167.14 points versus 92.95 points (although the Run Line's ROI of 5.7% is better than Money Line's 5.1%, calculated using the US method of betting to win 100 units). 

It is true that in the five negative seasons prior to 2012 (I only have access to data going back to 2007 for the Run Line), losses would have been less on the Run Line, but hopefully most readers are reading this blog with a view to maximising their profits rather than minimising their losses. 

Speaking of profits, I mentioned as recently as last month that in my opinion "your interest [in sports investment] should probably not primarily be quaestuary" and courtesy of @SJosephBurns comes this gem of a quote along the same lines:
In other words, a non-quaestuary quest. Try saying that after a few beers.

I digress. The trend towards Unders in these matches that I mentioned in April also continued in May. A 76-56-3 record to date is an ROI of over 12%. Caution is advised though, as this is the first season Unders is ahead in these games since 2013. The number of close games early on this season is obviously a big factor. The fewer runs a game is decided by, the more likely the Unders is. For the shorties this season, 72 matches were decided by three of fewer runs, and 52 of these ended as Unders.

The T-Bone System actually lost 0.12 points from its 27 selections in May, although the Run Line option was up 4.35 points. After 51 selections this season, the Money Line is up 6.08 points (ROI of 7%), while the Run Line is up 8.65 points (ROI 12.3%).

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