Saturday, 30 June 2018

La Liga Draw

Another top league, and as you might have guessed, another league where backing the Draw blindly isn't a good idea. A loss of 144.84 over the past six seasons when trying this, an ROI of -6.4%. We lost one match due to no prices, leaving a sample size of 2,279. 

Excluding matches where the 'true' Draw probability is 0.25 or lower will save you 110.39 points, while excluding matches where one team has a win probability of 0.4 or greater will save 88.9 points.

Using the relative difference in win probability between the two teams works well in this league, with the Draw in matches up to the 25% level generating an ROI of 8.81%.
When the Big 3 (Atlético Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid) play each other, backing the Draw is profitable +9.97 points. When the Big 3 play the Small 17, backing the Draw would have lost you 74.78 points. 

Looking at other derbies, the Galician Derby has an ROI of 16.1%, although there won't be one next season following Deportivo La Coruña's relegation.

The Sevilla Derby has an ROI of 9.6%, while the Basque Derby with five Draws in the 12 contests has a rather impressive ROI of 50%. When the other Basque clubs (Alavés and Eibar) are included, the ROI drops to 10.6%.

If anyone has any other leagues that they are interested in, let me know. If Joseph Buchdahl's Football Data website has the numbers, I can plug them into my spreadsheets easy enough. 

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