Saturday, 23 June 2018

Bundesliga Draw

With 18 clubs, the Bundesliga has fewer clubs than any other league I've looked at so far, and the league with the most dominant club. 

Bayern Munich have won the league all six seasons by a combined 100 points with the narrowest win being by 10 points and if they are excluded from any Draw bets, a strategy of backing the Draw in every game becomes a profitable venture.

The loss on all games is 33.92 points, an ROI of -1.8%. Once again, the simple rule of ignoring the draw when it's priced at 5.0 or more saves 37.43 points. 

When we look at the difference in percentage terms, there's a decent ROI when the difference is 10% or less which is 13.25% and ignoring draws in the bottom third of the differences (67%-99%) range would save 47.91 points. 

When it domes to 'derby games', I looked at the North Rhine-Westphalia state which six recent or current Bundesliga teams come from. With five teams next season, this state has the most in the Bundesliga. 

Games between those six clubs, and for those of you who flunked Geography in school they are Schalke '04, Borussia Dortmund (these two contest the Revierderby), Fortuna Düsseldorf, Bayer '04 Leverkusen, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Köln, (the last two play in the Rheinland Derby).

The 118 matches between these clubs have returned 31.16 points, ROI 26.4%

Only four clubs (Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Schalke '04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach) have finished in the top half of the Bundesliga for the past six seasons, and matches between them have an ROI of 22.4%. Of course three of those clubs feature in the regional derby games, but including Bayern Munich with this trio adds 15.08 points to the pot. 

Next up: National League

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