Monday, 25 June 2018

League One Draw

League One is probably the league I look at least. The top leagues are all interesting because they are top leagues. The Championship gets my attention because it's one step from the top and has some fairly big teams in it. My interest in league Two is mostly to see which established league club is about to lose its league place, while the National League is interesting or the opposite reason. Which small town team is headed into the league and will they have a unique surname. Wood or Moors perhaps for next season. And lost in all this is League One with its disrupting churn rate of 29%, and a mix of former Premier League clubs (seven next season), small town teams and not too many derbies - one London derby next season, and of course the world famous Dockyard Derby.

League One is another league where backing every draw is the worst 'blind' strategy on all outcomes. 
Uniquely, at least so far, this is the only league where backing the Draw when it has a 'true' win probability of 0.2 or less is positive, although 63 selections from six seasons isn't a big sample. Backing the Draw when it has a higher win probability is also positive, so the area to avoid is in the middle. Avoiding Draws when the win probability is between .26 and .295, and you save 201.6 points.

The difference is also interesting, although the results are the exact opposite of what one might expect. Matches where one team has a win probability of 60%  or more greater than the other is profitable is up 74.14 points from 807 bets, ROI +9.2%

The six London derbies, two Dockland Derbies and the four Fylde Coast Derbies were all profitable by a total of 8.40 points for what it's worth, which is nothing, but this league might be worth looking at further. It seems to be one where the previously mentioned churn results in the market not being accurate. Backing the Draw when one of the teams is odds-on is usually a loser, but here would make you 58.79 points, ROI 5.6%.

One final observation is that backing the Draw in the longest serving league member's matches is up 48.47 points over the six years. 

Next up : League Two

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