Thursday, 3 December 2009

November Rain

After a poor start to last month, results did improve towards the end, but November still finished below the average for November, and as a result November drops to third in my list behind January and March. There were probably three occasions when a little luck would have made a big difference, but as I have written before, having value doesn’t mean having winners, but if you are finding the value, the winners, and profits, will come.

One of the more pleasing things emerging from the month was the improvement in my football betting. I am confident that the Elo rating system is performing better each month as it settles down from its major overhaul from a couple of months ago, although I seem to be keeping more and more data as each week goes by.

Some of you may have noticed that included in the blog roll on the right of this page, is JP’s Betting Blog. JP subscribes to a number of tipping / advice services, and to date is nicely in profit from them. Some of the swings in fortune are a little too much for my delicate stomach, but for the most part JP sticks with the tips he is given, and has the balls to never lay off. Back in the summer, he had a decent bet on a long-shot in golf (60-1 or so I think), and when the player was trading at close to evens on the final day, I imagine most of us would have chosen to lock in a healthy profit, but not JP. He let the bet run, and it paid off for him.

Anyway, most of his services are for horse-racing, and are of little interest to me, but also included is one called Football Elite which is, as some of the sharper minds amongst you may already have guessed, a football tipping service. Football-Elite cover games in not only England, but also in Italy, Germany, France and Spain (possibly more) and I’ve been keeping an eye on some of these results for a while now.

While I spend hours trying to find value on the English games, I don’t have time to study overseas leagues, but Matt does, and manages to achieve consistently good results. So last week, I took the plunge and signed up for the service – something that I have never done before.

The first selections were for games this past weekend, and we’re off to a good start. Of the five final selections, two won, (the other three all finished as 1-1 draws) but two of the four from the short list also won, including Cagliari at 4.1 resulting in an overall small profit. Vallodolid should have also won, but managed to throw away a 3-0 lead at home and draw 3-3, but certainly Matt seems to be finding value, and on another weekend, the selections could have been even more profitable. Watch this space for how the service adds to my bottom line.

Some of you may remember me writing about another of JP’s services, one called The Form Analyst which caught my attention in the early days when the very personable Graeme offered a free trial, had terrible results, and then decided to go live with it anyway. It seems that after a miserable run, Graeme has called it a day. I remain convinced that without inside information, betting on horses is not the way to go.

1 comment:

Thirsty said...

Definetly keep us upto date on the Football elite performance.
I am always sceptical of these systems but the figures quoted on the site seem good enough.