Saturday, 5 February 2011

Goals Galore

Quite a day so far in the EPL with goals galore and anyone on Under 2.5 goals being taken to the woodshed.

The early game set the tone for the day, with Stoke City and Sunderland coming up with five goals between them, and a game that was a likely loser from the second minute.

The Overs was won inside of 10 minutes at Newcastle with Arsenal off to 3-0 start, and Carlos Tevez had won for me within 39' at Manchester City. Wigan Athletic and Blackburn Rovers combined for seven for the third winner.

A last minute goal at Tottenham took away a small profit, so three winners from seven games at 1.74, 1.99 and 2.34. I need the Overs at West Ham tomorrow and the Unders at Wolves in a few minutes to turn a profit on these.

One advantage of backing Overs versus Unders is that they can be winners long before the game is ended, and even a goalless game late on can still turn into a winner.

An example of never-say-never was seen in an amazing finish at Newcastle as the home team turned a 0-4 deficit into a 4-4 draw, taking full advantage of Arsenal's reduction to 10 men. Obviously Arsenal traded at 1.01 for a lot (see screen-shot), the draw traded at 490, and Newcastle United traded at 1000. Very nice for someone, agonising for the money-buyers. Was 1.01 value at 4-0? Arguably, given that no EPL team has lost a 4 goal lead before, but I doubt that's much compensation to a lot of people.

Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster system picked Stoke City v Sunderland, Wigan Athletic v Blackburn Rovers and tomorrow's West Ham United v Birmingham City. Two losses so far, but a nice win for Football Elite with Hannover '96 beating Wolfsburg 1-0 at 2.6.

The Six Nations is off to a profitable start, with England winning at 1.59 last night, the only real close contest. I also bought some money in the Ireland v Italy game at 1.18 - Cassini going with his head rather than is heart - but a 13-11 win suggests that this was hardly value. I have France tomorrow at 1.14.

An apology is owed to Steve, whose post I referenced earlier today on the subject of targets. Steve's mention of 10% wasn't actually in reference to that number being a target for him, but as the daily percentage that his bets were returning.

However, my point remains that targets are nonsensical. Bet when it's value to do so, and don't when it's not, and if that means no action on some days, and 16 hours on others, then so be it.

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