Saturday, 5 February 2011

Shortening Overs

I updated the previous post with the prices available on my Under / Over value bets at the time of writing, and it's interesting to see how much some of them have moved in about 18 hours.

Every single Over bet has come down, by 8 ticks, 13, 10 and 6 respectively, although the five Unders haven't moved quite so much. Villa and Stoke games down 4 ticks, Spurs and Wolves about the same, with just Everton v Blackpool drifting out by 18 ticks (2.5 to 2.68).

I've not spent a lot of time studying pre-off price movements. The markets seem to have a mind of their own, and there are better ways to spend my limited time, but if I had hours available, it would be an interesting area to research. I like the idea of being able to close out a position pre-off and locking in a guaranteed profit, but the idea of these is to reduce the PC, so I'll be happy to break even.

Another winner in the Bundslayga system earlier, with Borussia Dortmund (1.67) failing to beat Schalke '04. I guess this is something of a local derby, as I was in Dortmund for the Brazil v Ghana World Cup Round of 16 game in 2006, while staying in Gelsenkirchen waiting for the England v Portugal Quarter-Final and I don't recall too much driving. Happy days. Somehow I don't think a trip to Qatar holds quite the same appeal, although Brazil does!

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