Sunday, 18 March 2012

Selective Recall

My recent "Profits Turn Negative" post included the disclaimer in the opening paragraph that "This isn't meant to pick on Mr 500". Apparently the author missed that line. As Al correctly noted:
500- Cass is providing valuable insight for his readership. I'm sure it is not personal.
The post was to highlight the rose-tinted view that many people have of their own activities. It's human nature. Losses are swept under the carpet, or dismissed as bad luck, while winnings are talked up as if they are the result of skill and the next Holy Grail, and there is definitely the tendency for people to recall winners more than losses. Here's a perfect example - included in his comment on the afore-mentioned post, Mr. 500 wrote:
Yes, I am still in profit since the start of 2012.
yet on March 13th this year, he wrote on his blog:
All I need to do now is not mess it up until the 31st and I'll have my first month of profit for a while.
Now if someone has not had a profitable month "for a while", how can 2012, less than three months into it, possibly be in profit? The laws of mathematics are pretty clear about this.

In the same post, he wrote:
I'm probably still spending too much time on betfair really, and my next aim is to try and cut that down
so why he is upset at me for agreeing with him that at this stage in his life, this might be a good plan, I'm not sure.

Interestingly, he has not requested the removal of his blog from my blog roll.

A case of shooting the messenger?


pierre said...

well you can be in profit with losses in january and february. for instance mr500 may have lost 1 in january, 1 in february and actually making 3 in profit.
The laws of mathematics are pretty clear about this.

BigAl said...

Don't let that get in the way of a chance for the author to try and make someone feel small.

Just one of many completely inaccurate statements from Cassini. The most regular of which is "if you can't show a profit to level stakes you don't have an edge."

AL said...

i don't understand the hostility towards Cass on the comments.

he is educating those new to gambling and may save them time and cash when they think they might have stumbled upon the holy grail (betfair).

symptoms of people with problems include hiding those losses from people around them and themselves.