Wednesday, 18 September 2013

Wipeouts And Winners

FTL as of 17.Sep.2013
Not the start to the season that The Football Analyst was hoping for I'm sure, or is Graeme Dand just giving some of us mere mortals a head-start? All seven of his Saturday selections lost, six by one goal, and AFC Wimbledon by two goals, and if he keeps this up for too much longer, there will be a flood of entries into the FTL eager to collect the bounty on offer for finishing ahead of Graeme.

Graeme also had seven selections from last night's lower league schedule, and found two winners for a small loss. With his offer of £25 to anyone finishing above him, Graeme is currently on the hook for some £300, and as entry to the FTL remains open, if you think you can stay ahead of him with a 7.16 point start, then you have a free play. Win prize money or at least get your money back.

In stark contrast to TFA, Skeeve had a good weekend, despite the Friday night loss. In the FTL qualifiying bets, his selections of Nuneaton, Forest Green Rovers, Kidderminster Harriers and Salisbury City were all winners. Surprisingly, no more selections from the midweek games. Skeeve leads by 2.2 points.

A solid weekend too for Peter Nordsted with his Premier Betting selections profitable overall, and one winner from two for his Drawmaster selections, which move up to fourth. Premier Betting moves up to second in the table.

The biggest mover of the prize eligible entries was yours truly and the XX Draw Under 2.5 selections had a good week with 8 winners from 13, and are now at -0.27. Hard to gloat too much though when the flagship of the service - the XX Draws - still languish in last place although they did show a profit of 3.68 points with 5 winners from 13 this weekend.

Just outside the prize money is Rubicon who made a small profit this weekend, followed by Fedslam who made a small profit.

Forza Fizzer fizzled this weekend with selection St Johnstone losing 1-2 to Hibernian despite scoring first.

Emp reduced his opening week's losses by finding 14 winners from 23 selections for 1.02 points profit.

The Scatter Gun spluttered a little, with a loss of 3.2 points on the weekend, and then comes Football Elite (the only service with an 'official' entry but not a "prize-eligible" entry). FE went for Elche on Monday night, but to no avail. Football Elite also has the dubious honour of the lowest ROI at -60% but he has had only six selections so a couple of winners will change that number fast. Strangely five of the six selections have failed to score, never mind failed to win.

Webbo had one winner from five for a small loss and then we come to Punters' Friend Neil, who had a great weekend switching to picking draws and found five from nine. I say great 'weekend' because unfortunately for Neil, his five midweek draw selections all ended as home wins so Neil only moves up by a couple of spaces overall.

The Bundeslayga had just one selection, and a losing one at that.

As always, it is possible that I have erred in some way, so please let me know if you think this is the case.

NFL update now, and the smallest of profits (0.16 points) for John Walsh.
John's season total is 2.31 points, comprised of Totals +3.4, Moneyline +1.15, Handicaps -2.24. Interestingly (to me) the average margin of victory in both Weeks 1 and 2 is 7.63 points with 22 of the 32 games so far being decided by a touchdown (and point after) or less.

Back to real football, and the topic of the lack of goals in the EPL so far this season has received much attention, including from the always very readable Mark Taylor at The Power of Goals. A Mark (may or not be the same one) did drop a comment here, which was:
Perhaps one significant factor could be the change in managers at several top clubs. Man Utd, Chelsea, Man City and Everton all have new managers and at least two of them are not renowned for attacking football. I haven't done any analysis on this theory, but it could be a possible 'intrinsic' reason.


Mark said...

Followed Graeme's soccer bets for a long time and I would take 1.5 on him topping this league at the end of season.Any takers?


Graeme Dand said...

lol Nice to see you haven't lost the faith just yet Mark!

Not sure if this would be ethical or not mate but I'll happily lay you a decent bet at odds of 1.51 as a way to hedge against my liability in this league! :)

Joking aside, it's early days but whatever happens, I think my reasoning was sound. My worst performing UK system last season was 4% ROI over 500+ bets. I have come up with a system for this league that will generate 600+ bets and even if I can only achieve 4% ROI at Pinnacle kick-off prices (would be a rubbish season), then that's 24pts profit.

If I can't generate that sort of return this season, then it's going to be a long season for me and everyone following my ratings. No idea if 24pts is enough to win the FTL but if not, then good luck to whoever beats that. :)