Friday, 26 June 2015

Unintended Bias And Women

On the Cortisol post, Tony M commented:

I have read quite a bit about this - and convinced myself that the effect is due to (unintended) referee bias. It's to do with our human deep rooted need to conform to the opinion of the crowd. I can pass on the name and author of the book, if you would like to know more?
I have mentioned this before:
as studies have shown that referees, albeit subconsciously, favour home teams, and when a crowd is pumped up, it is reasonable to assume that this influence would only be enhanced
but if there is a book on this, I'm sure some readers would be interested in the details. Unfortunately, since the effect is well known, it's of limited value from a betting perspective, but it is an interesting topic.

As this excellent article details, not all statistics are created equal. Some are interesting curiosities, others useful data.

Regarding the surprising news that I was running another FTL next season, Brian had this to say:
Ah silly me... I think I must have found my way to last season FTL to continue post Cassini! Haha.

I have considered offering to run the FTL but in it's entirety I think it would be too much for me to take on. Didn't someone submit 30 odd selections one weekend?!
I might be happy for some to send me their picks if there is a reasonable amount and their record is good. Failing that people are welcome to join my tipster table competition where they enter their own selections.
Oh that it were a mere 30 picks that September weekend, which will live long in the memory. It was actually 81 selections, which at least resulted in a profit (although 'only' 1.38 points). The entry pocketed a cool £270.51 on the season though, which was quite impressive.

Anyway, Betting Tools has a Tipster Table for anyone wishing to pit their skills against others.

Not sure how many readers are following the Women's World Cup, but as a sporting event it's not been bad. Only 14 of the 45 games so far (including a 10:0 and a 10:1) have been decided by more than one goal, so while the quality is poor relative to the men, relative to each other, it is fairly even, which is what makes a sporting event interesting.

Signora Cassini would be very proud of the fact that her country has never finished worse than third in the previous six tournaments, except that she's not into 'soccer'. They play China later tonight (a re-run of the 1999 final and 1995 bronze medal game) and are currently ~1.53 for a win in 90 minutes and place in the semi-final versus Germany which just beat France on penalties.

England are in the other half of the draw, with a slightly less impressive record in this competition and up against the hosts Canada tomorrow night.  

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