Tuesday 8 November 2016

Cruising To 270

Steve M’s latest post makes me realise that he and I have more in common than I had thought.

Aside from the obvious - good looks and hairy chests (though mine is perhaps a little greyer in hue) – we both have Italian roots (though mine are perhaps a little shallower in depth having eroded away over a couple of centuries).

We both write blog posts in a friendly, upbeat style and we both call out bullshit when we see it.

We’re like identical twins, separated only by a generation and a few thousand miles.

Steve and I go back a long way. As part of Project Verdana, I came across a post thanking Steve for the very generous gift of a hamper delivered to my front door almost four years ago, his quite unnecessary and generous way of thanking me for some Draws that had been sent his way. He commented, and I paraphrase here, but it was something like:

Never before in the history of football, have I enjoyed so few goals, in so many matches, for so long.
Thanks for a great year of draws. Never have I watched matches and been so bored and yet happy at the same time when a game ends 0-0.
Another coincidence was that we were both at the Rugby World Cup Final a year ago, but anyway, Steve is one of the good guys - normal, extremely generous and with a positive outlook on life, a trait that has no doubt come in handy following the recent downturn in his betting fortunes.

Although it wasn’t related to betting, Steve’s latest post provides details of his Mediterranean Tour from May / June this year which will have made many of us slightly envious, and congratulations to him on his engagement.

Steve mentions that one downside of cruises is the expense and availability of Internet access, but for me this ability to escape from work and go off the grid for a few days is a definite upside to cruises. 

On the subject of escaping from work, I'll be off to the important election state of Pennsylvania next week to spend Thanksgiving with my son, and hopefully celebrate the election of a second President Clinton with a few pints of Allagash.

It's hard to see how Hillary can lose. She has 269 Electoral College votes in states where she has an 80% or greater chance of winning, meaning she needs just one more vote to reach the 270 winning line. 
Nevada has 6 votes and Secretary Clinton has a 78%+ chance of winning there. If she takes Florida and its 29 Electoral Votes, it's all over, and she has a 67%+ chance there. 

North Carolina (15 Votes) is the sole toss-up state, but Hillary Clinton can probably afford to lose there. Her final rally was, perhaps not coincidentally, in Raleigh last night, with the penultimate one notable not only for the appearances of the Obamas, Jon Bon Jovi and Bruce Springsteen, but also for the attendance of my son - his second Clinton rally of the campaign. I've raised him well.  

Donald Trump has 180 Votes in states where he has an 80% or greater chance of winning, and 215 in states where he is expected to win. Where is he going to get the other 55? 

15 votes from North Carolina would give him 230, still 40 short. If he somehow wins Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada, he's still one vote short. Michigan is his next best chance, and perhaps the reason why his final rally was in Grand Rapids last night. More lies from him there incidentally, but not the place to discuss that here.  
In summary then, Trump needs to win every state he's expected to win, plus a handful of states where he is not favoured. Can that happen? Of course. Is there a 19% chance it can happen? No, and the stock market doesn't think so either.  

Get on Clinton at 1.22 / 1.23 - sorry, already took the 1.6. 
I've also had a speculative bet on Clinton getting 300-329 Electoral College Votes at 3.05, which is likely dependent on her winning Florida.   

I meant to mention at the weekend that one of my local teams, Merstham, somehow managed to get to the FA Cup First Round for the first time in their history, where they hosted Oxford United last Saturday, a team from four levels above them, and Merstham aren't even that good - 19th of 24 at the time of writing with their next match at the not so mighty Wingate & Finchley tonight. Attendance there could be slightly lower than Saturday's 1,920.

Anyway, while betting on Cup games isn't something I usually get involved in, I did take a look at the prices for this one, and couldn't believe that Oxford United were 1.41 on Friday.
The gulf in class showed as Oxford United ran out easy 5:0 winners.

Finally, Trump's advisers took away his Twitter access at the weekend. Not sure if it was in response to my comments on twittering or not, but bizarre that win or lose today, so many people think a man who can't be trusted on social media is fit to be President. He's not. If you have a vote, use it. 


James said...

Have a safe trip and return to us reinvigorated.

May I suggest some music for your long journey?

Status Quo with "Whatever You Want"

We wouldn't want anything radical for the journey ahead.

Jtking3141 said...

"It's hard to see how Hillary can lose. She has 269 Electoral College votes in states where she has an 80% or greater chance of winning, meaning she needs just one more vote to reach the 270 winning line. "


Steve said...

"good looks", haha, you must also have the same poor eyesight I have :)

Thanks for the kind words. The recent run has not been fun, but a really bad run was due eventually, at the stakes I bet and the small amount of bets each week I am always going to have to deal with extremes (both high and low).

Hope you have a great time in the states.

Next time I'm in the UK we should catch up for a beer.