Saturday 5 November 2016

Cubs Win! MLB Systems Wrap 2016

With the 2016 MLB season finally over, the good news was that for the third consecutive season, the UMPO System finished in profit.

The more disappointing news was that the profit was 0.05 of a point, or an ROI of 0.2%. Should anyone be interested, here are the full results:

The T-Bone System ended in profit for 2016 too, with all three bet types (Money Line, Run Line and Overs) profitable.  Results for the past five seasons updates here.

Backing very hot favourites (Implied Probability >= 0.75) continued to be profitable this season as the reverse favourite-longshot bias continues to appear to no longer exist in this sport:
For those who like their favourites a little more tepid with an Implied Probability of 0.667+, the 2016 numbers were +1.23 points from 284 selections, an ROI of 0.2%. I've seen that number somewhere before. 

The reason profits were so low was due to a very strange July when these favourites hit at just 54.9%, the worst month in almost 12 years. 

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