Monday, 20 February 2017

Failing Assets

There's a lot of woo-woo out there about desire, as if all that is needed to make millions from trading is desire. It's nonsense of course. Certainly you need a positive attitude and be prepared to put in a lot of work, but 'desire' alone isn't going to get you anywhere. Desire, however strong, isn't going to upset the laws of probability for example:

“If I desire it, I will achieve it” is a common mantra of positive thinkers. After all, the first stage of making something happen in life is to understand exactly what it is you want. But success is not achieved just by desire; it has to be coupled with a plan and with another factor that can impact your success: detachment.
Being emotionally detached from your financial or trading goals is, in my opinion, a critical and often overlooked factor.

A detached approach makes it easier to accept when markets change, and make the move to different approaches.

That your edges are going or have gone doesn't go unrecognised as the profits that were there previously are reduced, but being too close to the action, enjoying the thrill of it too much, and the mind is very creative on telling you why you should carry on. 

In Mark Iverson's case, he appears to believe that jumping into a new sport is the panacea for his trading woes. I very much doubt it. There are still ways to make profits, but they're not to be found in trading horse racing markets. 

Sadly Mark's grip on reality is somewhat frail, with his much publicised support of Big Pairs, despite some rather obvious clues that the latter's claims (CEO of a "multi-billion dollar global organisation") might not be completely true.

His inability to accept that his habit of 'easing up at the end of a calendar month' was also ridiculous and not a sign of a sharp mind, and the less said about his Soccer In Play app, the better. 

James took time out of his busy schedule to comment on Mark's moving to horse racing, writing: 
As his website states, "I'm not ready to give up on gambling just yet"
That's the problem with action gamblers, they just can't leave off and often they give it all back. If he was a trader rather than a "gambler" then he would realise that for him sports trading might now be a failing asset and should be dropped.
Another bon mot was "If you treated Betfair as a hobby that only paid a small amount, would you write and publish a book on your Betfair trading techniques?"
I would say, if you treated Betfair as a primary source of income that paid for your livelihood, would you be flailing around trying to relive former successes (unsubstantiated) in areas for which you struggle to find edge, should edge actually exist.
The fact that he went on one of The Tangled Webb's "courses" suggests he is not as clued up as he purports to be. Going on a "How To Push a Mouse Around A Table" course is not the stuff of PC giants.
Many readers will no doubt say that Mark has done very well from trading, and reaching Super Premium Charge (in 2014) was no mean feat, but it has come at a cost, mainly that of a career. Divide the profits by the time spent and the hourly rate is distinctly average. 

As for 'action gamblers', when you rely on profits to pay the bills, at least the prospect of Mark giving it all back are slim.  

Two hours to make £14 (after 40% Premium Charges) doesn't seem that great to me for a pro, and Mark readily accepts that he would have made more from working [as in a 'proper' job]:
I'm not sure where this opposition to a 'proper' job comes from. 
Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life - Confucius
Many of us might not 'love' our jobs, but the security, benefits, holiday pay etc. aren't bad. Trade in your spare time if you must, but don't expect your competitors on Betfair to keep funding you should you find an edge. 

I agree with James that the sight of Mark 'flailing around' in horse racing is concerning, an example perhaps of someone unwilling to accept that former glories have gone forever, and indeed you would certainly think that an experienced pro sports trader wouldn't need to spend 28 hours income on a "course". If Mark could detach, and see his situation as an outsider, I'm sure he would see that his horse fix is flawed. That some edge has been overlooked by far more experienced horse racing traders and will be discovered by Mark is something of a long-shot and no amount of desire will change that fact.  

1 comment:

G said...

Excellent (and often over-looked) comment on detachment.
Something I've found recently that is much easier when placing "place & forget" bets.
Much more difficult when trading a match/game etc.
Was curious if you found the same - obviously you're not trading as much/at all now-
when your were up in the higher echelons of the trading world along side Messers Webb, Berry, Iverson et al.