Sunday, 24 September 2017

NCAAF Overtime Overload

When your team is getting points, one of the more annoying ways to lose a bet is when the game goes into overtime. 

Getting points, reaching the end of regulation tied always feels like you have earned the win, but in US sports, overtime counts. Psychologically, your "win" can't be improved upon, but it can always be taken away. The emotions connected to a loss of this type where were written about in this Loss Aversion post earlier this year.  

Prior to this weekend, 123 system matches had gone into overtime, but the good news is that overall, the odds of holding on for the win are in your favour.

Of those 123 matches, 81 (66%) of these games were winners (system winners, not necessarily straight up winners), 6 (5%) resulted in a push, while the other 36 (29%) were losses.

With a total of just 15 games going to more than one overtime in 16 full seasons from 1996, it was unusual that Saturday alone saw three more games added to that total.

I know at least one reader was following these bets at the weekend, and hope that three matches going into overtime didn't cause any unnecessary stress. 

Fortunately, all three double-overtime games were system winners.

The updated overtime records for the system selections are below:

The final game of the weekend was today, and the system made another profit on the Week as East Carolina won straight up to make it a 6-2 weekend with one push. 

Results for the season so far:
Now for the NFL where we have just two selections this weekend. It's been a poor start to the season for the Small Road 'Dogs with a 6-6-1 record, but the New Orleans Saints (+5.5) are leading leading by 21 points with less than five minutes remaining, while the Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) kick-off in a few minutes.  

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