Monday, 8 January 2018

Alabama Crimson Tide v Georgia Bulldogs

The decision to play the Unders in the Jacksonville Jaguars v Buffalo Bills Wild Card game turned out to be correct, with just 13 points scored in total. The decision to skip the bet on them to cover wasn't so good.

In the final game of this round, the Carolina Panthers covered the spread versus the New Orleans Saints to complete a nice weekend.    

The College Football season comes to an end tonight with the Championship game between 3.5 point favourites Alabama and Southeaster Conference rivals Georgia. This is only the fourth season of College play-offs, and with only 11 games in the books, there are not too many trends. 

One thing that does stand out is that the lines tend to be way off in these games. Eight have been 'wrong' by double figures, with half of those by 28 points or more. 

Favourites are 6-5 straight up, 5-6 against the spread. In games where the line is less than 7 points, the underdog is 5-2 ATS, with the two losses both this season as the favourites both covered the three points they were giving.

Although these play-off games are all technically neutral, the game is being played in Atlanta, which for those of you who flunked geography, is in the state of Georgia. While Georgia play their home games in Athens, they have already played, and won, two games in Atlanta this season, including the SEC Championship game last month.

As for the total points, the line is set historically low at 45 points. The only two games with similarly low totals (44.5 and 46.5) both went Under, but again, the sample is very small so don't go crazy. 

I'll be on Alabama -3.5 and Under 45 points.

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