Tuesday, 24 April 2018

NBA Play-Offs

The first round of the NBA play-offs are underway, and the very fact that the games are 'play-offs' means that not too many such matches see a strong favourite. 

Looking at the last five seasons, in matches where one team is favoured by less than three points, the Unders has a 50-41-2 record.  Overtime is always a concern in low handicap games, and 8 of the 93 were tied at the end of regulation. 

Home court advantage is a privilege earned during the regular season, and not surprisingly most games (74.5% for the most recent five seasons) see the home team start as favourite. The market over-estimates this advantage.

During the regular season, backing road favourites is usually a profitable strategy and so it is in play-off games with a winning percentage ATS of 57.8%.

If you restrict your backing of road favourites to those giving 6.5 points or more, the ATS is over 90% with a 20-2 record. Unfortunately, we haven't had any selections yet this season. 

The Houston Rockets came close giving 6 last night while winning by 19 in Minnesota to take the Away Favourites overall record to 5-3 for this season.   

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