Another top league, and as you might have guessed, another league where backing the Draw blindly isn't a good idea. A loss of 144.84 over the past six seasons when trying this, an ROI of -6.4%. We lost one match due to no prices, leaving a sample size of 2,279.
Using the relative difference in win probability between the two teams works well in this league, with the Draw in matches up to the 25% level generating an ROI of 8.81%.
When the Big 3 (Atlético Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid) play each other, backing the Draw is profitable +9.97 points. When the Big 3 play the Small 17, backing the Draw would have lost you 74.78 points.
Looking at other derbies, the Galician Derby has an ROI of 16.1%, although there won't be one next season following Deportivo La Coruña's relegation.
The Sevilla Derby has an ROI of 9.6%, while the Basque Derby with five Draws in the 12 contests has a rather impressive ROI of 50%. When the other Basque clubs (Alavés and Eibar) are included, the ROI drops to 10.6%.
If anyone has any other leagues that they are interested in, let me know. If Joseph Buchdahl's Football Data website has the numbers, I can plug them into my spreadsheets easy enough.
3 comments:
Hi.
What odds you use in your reserch? Opening or closing?
Hi, Cassini. Just love your blog.. Found it a few weeks ago and enjoying every second of reading it..
How you calculate the relative difference in win probability between the two teams?
In La Liga I have 177 selections (in the same period) up to and 5% difference (and you have 60). Can't understand why..
Will appreciate your answer.
Thanks for sharing this info. I checked 24 derbies across Europe (Spain, England, Italy, France, Portugal) from the last 3 seasons and found only 3 of them had negative returns. The most profitable bets derbies were madrid ( 147%), liverpool - everton ( 83%), arsenal - tottenham (88.5%) derby county - nottingham forest (98%), norwich -ipswich (183%) , paris - marseille (94%). It does make sense because I guess does derbies brings a lot of money into either sides and fans usually don't like to back the draw. On the other hand I think, this is still only 4-8 matches per derby.
It does fit Sumpter article on pinnacle though https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/part-one-magical-betting-formula/ZBR2XMV32BCQ76U4
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