Tuesday, 4 September 2018

Another Hot August

August was again a great month for backing hot favourites in MLB. For the seventh successive season this was a profitable strategy, and with the largest profit ever, this trend shows no sign of slowing down. The Money Line results are:

Add in the Run Line results, and the profits since 2012 climb to 110.76 points. 2012 was a turning point for MLB favourites as I have mentioned before. Here from 2016:
The average profit updated to today is now at 28.67 points, with 113.70 points in the last two seasons. 

Bossman Megarain writes in his latest post that:
I am focusing more and more of my time on USA opportunities
For anyone serious about finding edges, it's a logical decision. It won't last for ever, but for now finding edges in American sports markets is far easier than in the more popular (from a UK perspective) sports, unless you have access to inside information, a topic Joseph Buchdahl discussed just yesterday, tweeting:
Indeed, a topic I wrote about as far back as January 2009. The EPL Draw System has started the 2018/2018 season profitably, up 2.69 points so far from 17 matches. I was expecting the season to continue through 2019, but Joseph doesn't make mistakes. 

1 comment:

fizzer555 said...

Hi Cassini, good to see you blogging again, hope everything is well with you.

Got to say your blog in 2016 - along with a small loss on the year for my MLB Dog picks - made me drop these Dog picks from my MLB portfolio from the start of 2017 - one of the best things I ever did! So a big thanks for that. The change in the favourite/dog bias that you identified has strengthened further and there is an underlying change in the MLB market.

To some extent that is driven by the success of the Cubs and Astros. Both went through a rebuilding (tanking?) period before becoming "World Series Champions" and there are several teams that seem to be tanking this year. The market is catching on and favourite prices are getting shorter, but still lagging the actual results. As you highlight, more MLB shorts this season than any previous year on record and still a month to go, and they have been highly profitable these last two seasons.

Thanks again!