Wednesday, 12 September 2018

NBA 2018 - Points To Success

For regular readers of this blog, the increase in three point shooting in the NBA is nothing new. Last season followers of the Beast system backing Overs in games where the total was 215.5 or greater were rewarded with an ROI of 8.1% 

Why Pinnacle Sports have published an article on three point shooting in the NBA now, rather than closer to the start of the season is a little strange, (and now I am doing the exact same thing), but the article is one of their better ones. I don't agree with the writer's conclusion that:
With more and more positionless players in the league the mid-range shot or “long-two” could make a comeback whilst the effectiveness of the “and-one” will gradually come to light.
As I wrote in my season summary in April:
I'm sure I'll be looking at these numbers in more detail closer to the start of next season, but the trend to more three point shots and average number of possessions doesn't show any signs of slowing down.
The trend is your friend. 
I would be surprised if the 2018 season numbers don't see the average climb still further. March and April saw the average at 214.6 points, which would seem a reasonable number. The real question is whether your average bettor, with whom you are in competition, will understand that higher points totals do not mean the value shifts to the Unders bet. 

It's quite remarkable that in the 2011 season, just one game had a points Total line greater than 215.5. Fast forward to 2017 when there were 431. 

At the 225.5 and greater level, since 2005 the Overs has a 58.1% record, and since 2011 a 61.3% record.

Backing 'Small 'Road Favourites in the NBA has been perennially profitable with just one losing season since 2006 as the season summary post illustrated, and after the WNBA last season had a 58% record on these games, this season went even better with 59.7%, an ROI of 16.5%. The season could end tonight as Seattle Storm lead the best of five finals 2-0 over the Washington Mystics, although the Mystics are 5.5 point favourites. Under 167.5 points at 2.02 is the value bet here. In WNBA playoff games, where the home team is favoured by five points or greater, Unders come in 57.1% of the time.  

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