Saturday, 28 September 2019

Doubleheader Delay

For those of you hoping to cash in on the September Sweep System yesterday, you're going to have to wait for 24 hours after both games between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox were washed out.

Game One was called in the fourth inning with the Tigers 4-2 ahead, but a game needs at least five innings to count.  

With only two days remaining in the regular season, and four games still to play, MLB have decided that we will have only the one traditional doubleheader today, and both teams will end the season on 161 games rather than the full 162. 

Since neither team can move up or down in the AL Central Division, it's understandable, but two doubleheaders each day would have been fun. 

We did have a couple of T-Bone winners yesterday from three selections, and the only totals selection was a comfortable winner with 21 runs scored. 

At the start of this season, there was an article published by the Action Network which included this system:

This is the simplest system you’ll find for betting baseball. Take a bad team (won 40% or less of games) after a win. Why does this work? Recreational bettors think it’s unlikely that a poor team will win two games in a row, which leads to inflated lines.
The problem is that it actually doesn't work these days. This season's Money Line ROI is -16.4% following last season's -8.9%.

Another system was to back the Under when two winning teams play each other: 
Winning teams score runs, and the public likes to bet the over. So, if you have a pair of winning teams on the field, the oddsmakers will inflate the total expecting casual bettors to get down on the over.
Again, this would have not been a profitable strategy, with the loss at 3.8% this season although to be fair it was profitable in 2018 at 1.5%.  

Perhaps too many people read the article and took all the value out of the systems, but they don't seem to have identified market inefficiencies. I do find such articles interesting though, as they sometimes trigger ideas that do lead to finding inefficiencies, which after all, is what it is all about.

1 comment:

diego said...

Brewers@Rockies didn't qualify? Total line was 13.5