Sunday, 22 September 2019

Extra Innings and More

Back from a week in humid Orlando, home of the University of Central Florida (more on that later), and to a rare, but much appreciated, donation to my retirement fund. Thank you Justin. Putting a monetary value on my invaluable advice is not an easy task of course, but either my retirement has been brought forward by at least 15 minutes, or I may take the donor up on his suggestion to have a few beers this weekend instead. 

Another area where the markets might be inefficient came to my attention  during the week. 

As always, these systems work because the public (and thus the market) reacts inappropriately to recent events, either under-reacting or over-reacting based on long established biases.

With the MLB season almost over, there's probably not much point in going into too much detail at this time, but the off-season will allow time to look into it further. 

A basic implementation of the idea, which is based on the premise that the impact of extra innings isn't always accurately accounted for, looks promising with the following results from the past three seasons:

The ROIs are even better at 21.0% and 17.6% over the same period when being selective about the type of match, and the one qualifier today is the Washington Nationals, with the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles worth considering. 

The more established T-Bone System continues to be a winner in September, not usually its best month, adding another 22.65 points to the season total, which is now the highest ever.
It's hard for me to understand why such an inefficiency persists in the market for so long, but I'm not complaining. There's a 1 in 3452 probability that these results are by chance but anyone following will be doing very nicely.

The Totals systems have had an unexciting month so far, with Overs having a 15-14-3 record, and Unders a 3-2 record.

In College Football, the perennially successful Small Road 'Dogs system (no losing records this millennium) went 5-1-1 yesterday and 13-9-2 for the season. 
Not everyone had a good Saturday:

Pittsburgh led 21-0 before UCF scored 31 points straight, before giving up a last minute touchdown and losing 34-35. While it is true that Central Florida has a great record ATS overall as a favourite, (22-9-2 since 2015) I'm not sure 1.21 was the best value.    

Early days still in the NFL, but the similar Small Road 'Dogs system here is 5-3 after two weeks, with five possible selections today. The record in Divisional matches is 3-1 but there are no qualifiers today unless the line on the Patriots v Jets game shortens considerably from its current 21 points! 

Lines of 20 points and over are rare occurrences in the NFL with just six such instances since the league re-organised in 2002, but today may well see two more with the Miami Dolphins getting 22.5 points at the Dallas Cowboys. 

Notable that on all six previous occasions, the 'dog covered the spread, but also notable that the Dolphins have lost their opening two games by 49 and 43 points.

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