Thursday 28 November 2019

Football Wash and Ice Hockey Woes

The five NFL Road 'Dogs went 2-3 last weekend, while the College selections went 5-4 so pretty much a wash. 

With the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, there will be three NFL games today but it's not looking like we will have any Road 'Dogs, although there is one likely College selection (Mississippi).

For the season, the NFL selections are 35-25-1 and the College selections 59-37-6.

In the NBA, the while the Road Favourites System is 5-2 following Monday night's win by the Portland Trailblazers in Chicago.

This is a long-winning system that takes advantage of the public underestimating certain teams:
Backing Overs when the Total is 224 or greater is still proving profitable, with a record of 49-35-1 for the season so far.

While it might seem as though all my systems just keep on generating money, that's not always the case, as illustrated by my NHL System which has struggled this season.
Church of Betting has a good post on the topic of staking, with the confirmation that nothing beats Kelly if you have a positive Expected Value (+EV).

Because Kelly has some practical limitations when it comes to sports betting, a topic also covered by Church of Betting, my belief is that most punters are best served by using a 2% of the bank, as discussed in this post here. If you have a larger edge, and if you follow some of my public systems you're in that category, then 3%, 4% or even 5% is reasonable. 

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