Friday 29 November 2019

Rebels Push and T-Bone on Full Kelly

The Mississippi Rebels lost their rivalry game yesterday by one point, but unfortunately that was all they were getting, so the game resulted in a Push.

As of right now, we will have five more College selections in Week 14 of the season this weekend, including two today - Miami (Ohio, not Florida) and Kent State who are getting 3 and 4.5 points respectively.

Week 14 is pretty much the final week of the regular College Football season, with just a handful of Week 15 games to come so at 59-37-7 I think I'm safe in recording a nineteenth consecutive winning season for these selections.
On the NFL front, it's looking like a quiet weekend with just a couple of probable Road 'Dog selections, although we do have five Under bets to add a little interest.
Triggered by Church of Betting's post on staking referenced in my previous post, I thought I'd show the outcome of using Full Kelly on baseball's T-Bone System this summer. Results have now been updated to include 2019 by the way. 

Note that this isn't every T-Bone selection, but a sub-set comprised of selections where the edge is historically larger.
From 2014 to 2018 (i.e. 5 seasons), the ROI on these selections was 13.1% from 352 selections, and the ROI for 2019 ended up being in line at 13.4%. 
The initial bank size was £1,000 and I used a stop loss at 67%. Fortunately this was never hit although we got close with two losses in the opening four selections, a risk of this extremely aggressive staking system.

Note that when there are more than one selection on a day, the stake on each game is the same and the bank is only updated at the end of a day, not after each bet. Most of us have better things to do with our time, and some games are played simultaneously anyway. 

The final bank was £3,555.31 after peaking at £4,091.26. The stop loss moved to over £1,000 on Star Wars Day, after which we were playing with house money.  

1 comment:

Marty said...

If the Kelly utility function (log bankroll) took the stop loss into account it would suggest betting less than Full Kelly. Not sure if that interests you.