Tuesday 10 December 2019

Zoning Out

A few years ago, it was a profitable NBA strategy to back the Unders when the line was 'big'. After looking good over an 11 year period from the 2005-06 to 2015-16 seasons, the system became a victim of the inexorable rise of the Overs as more and more points were being scored.

The definition of a 'big' line is subjective, and the line I used was 11.5. As is often the case, as one system dies, a new one is born, and markets for games with 'big' lines do currently (since 2010) show an inefficiency that some of you may want to look into, especially in December, but not after the All-Star Break. 

In the nine seasons since 2010, the strategy of backing favourites giving 14 points or more before the February break has a 63.3% record ATS and 71.7% in December, including last night's win by the Boston Celtics.

14 points or more is optimal in terms of ROI, but with an average of only 20 bets a season, that entry point is not for everyone. Lowering the threshold to 12.5 points or more drops the ROI slightly to 61.1%, but more than doubles the average number of selections. 

It's also worth looking at time zones as I have mentioned before. Big favourites heading West appear to struggle to meet expectations, although conventional wisdom has it that it is harder to perform after flying from West to East. 

If you eliminate teams travelling from other time zones to the Pacific Time zone, the ROI is up to 62.8%.

Week 14 of the NFL season saw a profit for the Small Road 'Dogs with two wins and a push from the four selections taking the season win rate to 58.5%.
In Division games, the record was 2-1-2 and 59.5% for the season, while the Divisional Unders went 3-2 after last night's NFC East game between the Eagles and the Giants was a winner despite going to overtime.

Unfortunately the two charity bets generously donated by Steve failed to come in, although the Dolphins / Fortyniners double came very close with the Dolphins losing by one point to a late Field Goal. Unfortunately the bet was straight up so the fact that the Dolphins were getting 5 points and covered was of small consolation.

Finally, the NHL System which was in the red at the end of November has now moved back into the green:

No comments: