Friday, 27 May 2022

Play-Offs and Paris

When the Champions League Final is between clubs from different countries, it's historically not a good prospect, with just two Draws from the past twelve such matches. With a 66% ROI, backing the Favourite is the best option, with just one 'Dog winning. 

Liverpool are the favourites in Paris tomorrow, at around 2.09 and here are all the previous Final results since 2004:
There are also the two National League Premier Division Semi-Final playoff matches, where the Favourite (Home team) is not historically a good bet, unless no fans are present as was the case for the 2020 matches!
Usually the Home club has the theoretical advantage of being rested, but Wrexham played last week in the FA Trophy Final at Wembley losing to Bromley**. 

Wrexham host Grimsby Town (a repeat of the 2012-13 FA Trophy Final) and while some of you will no doubt be drawing parallels with Harrogate Town in 2020, the FA Trophy Final that season wasn't played until May of 2021, with Harrogate thus becoming the only Football League club to win the FA Trophy. Yes readers, you may laugh, but you never know when this kind of important information might come up at a Quiz Night and be the difference between a bottle of house white and a T-shirt. 

Solihull Moors play Chesterfield in the other semi-final, and in League Two, Mansfield Town are very slight favourites to beat Port Vale in the play-off final at Wembley. The favourite in these games has never been odds-on since 2004, but with Mansfield at 2.87, Port Vale at 2.93 and the Draw at 3.22 this is the most evenly matched game yet and the Draw price looks generous.
Bromley were the first Wembley FA Amateur Cup winners in 1949. Should Bromley make it to the Football League in 2023, they will be just the second club to have won the FA Amateur Cup and the FA Trophy. 

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