Sunday 17 December 2023

Totals Beat Spread

Not since December 2005 has an NFL Total been set at 30.5 or lower, but Week 14's Thursday Night game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots ended that almost 18 year run. 

The Patriots' previous three games had a combined total of just 39 points scoring 13 and conceding 26 and for the season they were 9-3 on Unders, while the Steelers had gone Under in 10 of their 12 previous games so it wasn't a surprise to see a low Total. Historically backing the Under on the few low totals in this range has been profitable with a 7-2 record but the total went Over with the Patriots winning 21-18. 

Thanks to Frederic J for pointing out that there was more interest on the Total in this game than on the Spread, though whether 'more bets' was also 'more money' isn't specified.   
With Week 15 currently in progress, we're getting close to the end of the regular season, and after three consecutive losses for the Small Road 'Dogs, we're possibly looking at a first losing season since 2017 for this system and only a third losing season since 2005. 

We still have something like 14 possible bets to come, including four today, so all is not yet lost. The Divisional sub-system is in profit as are the Totals Systems, although the latter have been having a tough time recently too with only one win from seven selections. The College System ended the season with a 45-31-4 record, an ROI of 14.8%. while the Totals System ended at 46-34, an ROI of 11.7%

At the end of November I wrote that the gain needed to recover and get to a new overall high was 4.4%, and at the halfway point in the month, with just eight trading days left for the year, this percentage has been gradually whittled down to just 1.76% with the major US Indexes either at, or near, all-time highs.

$TSLA is also helping, having a good month so far, although my employer's stock isn't, and is in danger of having a losing year for the first time since 2008. As of Friday's close, it is up 0.2% for the year, which isn't great for my Options and RSUs, but at least the exercise price on any new ones awarded next year will be lower and my discounted purchase price for the Employee Stock Purchase Plan will be similarly lower in January. 

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